Top 50 Total Shots Created: MLS Week 13

I’ve been terrible with trying to keep up with this quantitative metric, but I figured it wouldn’t hurt to throw out an updated version in a vain attempt to try to play catch up with the status quo, being that the league is crawling towards the World Cup break.

Really, the point of this exercise is to try and capture how often players are creating shots–not just for themselves, but for teammates. It’s still pretty simplistic, and by no means the definitive answer to who the most valuable attackers are, but it’s a start in moving away from basing value judgements on goal totals.

To be as clear as possible this is not a metric that measures quality or success of the shot. It’s purely about opportunities to score. Either by way of putting mates* in position to score through passes that lead to shots–key passes–or to create a shot by himself–assisted or not–are the ways I count shots created.

*Editor loves word choice.

One thing I did do to include the best available and least luck-influenced player was to set a threshold of 700 minutes played. That limit was arbitrary and selected merely based upon the results of compiling the list. For that reason, and no other, you won’t see individuals such as Michael Bradley, Gilberto, Brad Davis, Joao Plata, Marco Di Vaio and Kekuta Manneh on this list even though their shot creation rates merited a position in the top 50. I am very high on both Plata and Manneh, and I would love to see both surpass the 600-minute mark and really fly beyond 2,000 minutes this season so we can see what their stable versions look like.

50-33:  The Above Average

Rank	Name	Club	Position	Minutes	Key Passes	Assists	Shots	ShC	ShC/90
50	Blas Perez	Dallas	FWD	899	6	2	24	32	3.20
49	Nick DeLeon	DC	MF	1026	12	2	23	37	3.25
48	Vincent Nogueira	Philadelphia	MF	1348	17	2	30	49	3.27
47	Juninho	LA	MF	962	9	3	23	35	3.27
46	Benny Feilhaber	KC	MF	1260	26	3	17	46	3.29
45	Erick Torres	Chivas	FWD	1186	8	1	37	46	3.49
44	Jack McInernery	Montreal	FWD	844	11	1	21	33	3.52
43	Baggio Husidić	LA	MF	761	13	1	16	30	3.55
42	Dillion Powers	Colorado	MF	825	21	3	9	33	3.60
41	Lamar Neagle	Seattle	MF	987	10	2	28	40	3.65
40	Teal Bunbury	NE	FWD	1170	15	3	30	48	3.69
39	Felipe Martins	Montreal	MF	996	15	2	24	41	3.70
38	Jairo Arrieta	Columbus	FWD	818	9	0	25	34	3.74
37	Max Urruti	Portland	FWD	744	5	0	26	31	3.75
36	Justin Mapp	Montreal	MF	949	17	4	19	40	3.79
35	Travis Ishizaki	LA	MF	735	20	1	10	31	3.80
34	Andrew Wenger	Philadelphia	FWD	1012	11	1	31	43	3.82
33	Diego Fagundez	NE	MF	1086	8	2	37	47	3.90

I’ll admit there is quite a bit of disparity between Diego Fagundez (#33) and Nick DeLeon (#49). This group does however hold a few names seems that, to my mind, seem to fit together. Blas Perez (#50), Erick Torres (#45), Jack McInerney (#44) and Andrew Wenger (#34) all are viewed a bit differently in terms of success, but, again, this isn’t about results-based productivity so much as process-based productivity. We’re merely looking at how much they’re involved in creating goal scoring chances, regardless of the quality of those chances or where they are located. In that context it makes more sense.

The lone surprise for me in this tier is Justin Mapp. I would have assumed he’d be much higher on this list being that he’s been on the few bright spots for Montreal a long with JackMac.

 

32-10:  The Good.

Rank	Name	Club	Position	Minutes	Key Passes	Assists	Shots	ShC	ShC/90
32	Chris Wondolowski	San Jose	FWD	810	6	0	30	36	4.00
31	Obafemi Martins	Seattle	FWD	1246	19	6	31	56	4.04
30	Michel	Dallas	MF	740	14	2	18	34	4.14
29	Lee Nguyen	NE	MF	1032	24	0	24	48	4.19
28	B. Wright-Phillips	NYRB	FWD	1051	8	0	41	49	4.20
27	Edson Buddle	Colorado	FWD	707	10	1	22	33	4.20
26	Shea Salinas	San Jose	MF	916	32	4	7	43	4.22
25	Sabastian Fernandez	Vancouver	FWD	654	10	0	21	31	4.27
24	Will Bruin	Houston	FWD	1221	20	1	37	58	4.28
23	Graham Zusi	KC	FWD	794	24	3	11	38	4.31
22	Alvaro Saborio	Real Salt Lake	FWD	869	5	2	35	42	4.35
21	Leonardo Fernandez	Philadelphia	FWD	701	13	1	20	34	4.37
20	Giles Barnes	Houston	FWD	1335	12	2	51	65	4.38
19	Gaston Fernandez	Portland	FWD	757	19	0	18	37	4.40
18	Mike Magee	Chicago	FWD	714	9	2	24	35	4.41
17	Harry Shipp	Chicago	FWD	894	23	4	17	44	4.43
16	Marco Pappa	Seattle	MF	751	12	1	24	37	4.43
15	Mauro Diaz	Dallas	MF	646	16	2	14	32	4.46
14	Bernando Anor	Columbus	MF	718	11	0	25	36	4.51
13	Cristian Maidana	Philadelphia	MF	871	23	2	20	45	4.65
12	Quincy Amarikwa	Chicago	FWD	880	15	4	28	47	4.81
11	Dom Dwyer	KC	FWD	1050	7	0	50	57	4.89
10	Deshorn Brown	Colorado	FWD	902	6	0	43	49	4.89

Two other names that are notable here. Edson Buddle (#27)–whom everyone thought was done two years ago when he was traded to Colorado–and Marco Pappa (#16), who was kind of a last minute signing before the start of the season, and who was a serious question mark considering his lack of playing time in the Netherlands.  Now both of these individuals that were stamped as likely non-essentials are two of most involved in the creation of their clubs attack. Lee Nguyen (29) coming in higher than Obafemi Martins (31) makes me laugh, simply because Martins is second in the league in assists and most people still hold that to being the truest or, perhaps, the most obvious sign of team goal contributions. Yet Nguyen has been a catalyst for New England and is simply their most valuable player when it comes to finding the ability to create chances. This is the meat and potatoes of the list.

9-4: The Elite.

Rank	Name	Club	Position	Minutes	Key Passes	Assists	Shots	ShC	ShC/90
9	Javier Morales	Real Salt Lake	MF	1154	41	5	21	67	5.23
8	Fabian Espindola	DC	FWD	1086	30	4	30	64	5.30
7	Diego Valeri	Portland	MF	1117	28	5	37	70	5.64
6	Landon Donovan	LA	MF	802	24	2	25	51	5.72
5	Thierry Henry	NYRB	FWD	1170	23	4	49	76	5.85
4	Federico Higuain	Columbus	FWD	1080	39	5	27	71	5.92

So there that is. There shouldn’t be any argument here with any of these names. Fabian Espindola (#8) is the sole reason DC even has a shot at the playoffs. He is going to get every opportunity to be ‘the man’ in black and red. Landon Donovan (#6) despite his uncanny snubbery from the US National Team is still clearly a major factor for the Galaxy and their attack. Sticking with the theme of decline in skills, Thierry Henry (#5) is still one of the greatest to ever play in MLS.

Oh, and I’m just biding my time for Higuian to get past this “slump” and jet into the MVP Candidate category… because that’s simply where he belongs. More on that down the road.

3-1:  The MVP Candidates.

Rank	Name	Club	Position	Minutes	Key Passes	Assists	Shots	ShC	ShC/90
3	Robbie Keane	LA	FWD	990	19	2	45	66	6.00
2	Clint Dempsey	Seattle	MF	751	14	2	43	59	7.07
1	Pedro Morales	Whitecaps	MF	821	31	4	38	73	8.00

Clint Dempsey (#2) has had the kind of year that is simply bananas. It’s been so crazy that it’s somehow eclipsed the Pedro Morales (#1) show that is going on just a few short hours north of him. Sure, these guys take penalty kicks, but that’s only a small fraction of their shots generated. If these two take this same show into the later stages of the season I can’t think there would be much reason to consider anyone else for MVP.

Oh, I guess you could probably throw Robbie Keane‘s (#3) name in that list, too. People forget about ol’ faithful, but even without his P.I.C. (read: ‘Partner in Crime’ for those that aren’t as hip as I am) for a game or two here and there, he’s still been incredible. Currently he ranks third in individual expected goals, proving that he also finds dangerous places to take his shots and doesn’t hesitate to pull the trigger. Oh, and despite the angry looks and words AND finger wags, he gets his teammates those same opportunities.

And here’s the Excel File for the top 50.

Season Preview: Seattle Sounders

The Sounders history comes at you as if you had just yelled “come at me, bro!” and meant it. The Sounders didn’t just come out of the gate in 2009, they came out of the gate like they had just stolen a car, killed a hooker in GTA, and they weren’t interested in stopping until they got those five stars and summoned multiple helicopters. The funny thing is that with all this “success,” they’ve never won a single piece of MLS-specific hardware. Yes, they’ve earned 3 U.S. Open Cup trophies and fell just short on penalties to Sporting KC for a fourth, and the club has tallied the 2nd-most total points in MLS since its inception (266 total points, 53 points per season). But the Sounders have inevitably faltered when the time has come to step up and win the trophy. Adrian Hanauer and Co. are set on changing that in 2014.

2013 Finish: 15-12-7, 52 points; 42 GF, 42 GA. Fourth place in Western Conference. Lost in MLS Cup Conference Semi-Finals.

Transactions

	Players In			Players Out
GK	Stefan Frei	Trade (Toronto)	GK	Michael Gspurning	Option Declined
F	Tristan Bowen	Trade (Chivas)	D	Marc Burch	Option Declined
D	Chad Marshall	Trade (Chivas)	M	Blair Gavin	Option Declined
F	Kenny Cooper	Trade (Dallas)	F	Steve Zakuani	Option Declined
F	Corey Hertzog	Re-Entry Stage 2	M	Mauro Rosales	Trade (Chivas)
M	Aaron Kovar	Home Grown Player	M	Adam Moffatt	Trade (Dallas)
F	Sean Okoli	Home Grown Player	F	Eddie Johnson	Trade (DC United)
F	Chad Barrett	Re-Entry Stage 2	D	Jhon Kennedy Hurtado	Trade (Chicago)
D	Jalil Anibaba	Trade (Chicago)	D	Patrick Ianni	Trade (Chicago)
M	Marco Pappa	Allocation	F	Fredy Montero	Transfer (Sporting CP)
			F	Will Bates	Waived
			D	Jimmy Ockford	Loaned (NY Cosmos)
			F	Eriq Zavaleta	Loaned (Chivas)
			M	Alex Caskey	Traded (DC United)

Roster churn: Seattle returns 58.9% of its minutes played from 2013 (15th most in MLS and 7th most in the Western Conference)

2014 Preview

Now, after an extremely disappointing finish in 2013 to not just the season but the playoffs, the Sounders have rebuilt their squad with dynamic talent that specifically caters to their team chemistry—and, side note, they may be just as dynamic off the pitch as on it. Seattle invested in the team’s spine by finding new keeper Stefan Frei to fill the boots of the departed Michael Gspurning, acquired Chad Marshall from Columbus,  signed critical midfielder Ozzie ‘Honey Badger’ Alonso to a designated player contract, and then traded Adam Moffat for Kenny Cooper. Cooper looks to be inserted in the spare striker role and work with Obafemi Martins in lieu of the wayward Eddie Johnson.

The team has a pretty solid line-up and even includes some interesting youth beyond just that of DeAndre Yedlin. Tristan Bowen, the original home grown player (HGP), joins the attacking front line and should get some looks up top this season. Along with him, the club will be expecting big things from central midfielder Andy Rose. Sean Okoli and Aaron Kovar, who could contribute to the season in their own ways, lead the second coming of Sounders HGP.

Overall, the club wasn’t bad in 2013. However, “not bad” wasn’t on the list of ideal outcomes at the beginning of the season. Seattle limped out of the gate in 2013, and without key pieces in the lineup, the Sounders found that they weren’t generating as many opportunities as their opponents, and the poor results followed suit. It came as little surprised that, without big-money players in the lineup, and with no CCL money available or that four-year bubble money for new teams, the Sounders were just too thin to deal with the weekly roster trimming.

Both of those financial sources that we went dry were also helping to soak up the payroll strains of having Steve Zakuani on the roster. It’s not his fault that problems have continued to occur following that horrible incident, but it left the Rave Green with an extremely tough decision to make this off-season. A decision that forced the club to decline to tender a contract to Zakuani, which ended in the delight of many Portland supporters–as the Timbers swooped in and signed him–and the sobs of Emerald City Supporters.

Before today, we knew the Sounders would be playing a lot of new players this season, and the roster churn continued today with the move of Alex Caskey to DC United. This will be one of the “newest” teams in MLS in some ways, especially when you consider that Clint Dempsey only played nine games for the Sounders last season. The squad is nearing completion with the likelihood that they’ll add a trialist to an important rotation spot. Now that we pretty much know who’s on the squad, the question is how consistent they will be.

As mentioned, Seattle’s numbers from 2013 all look very much mediocre. Those are, of course, averages from an entire season, and this only serves as another reminder that the mountain peaks were high and the valleys were equally low last season. Games against FC Dallas, San Jose and even Real Salt Lake at home were decisive victories by a team that ruled its opponents both on the scoreboard and by the numbers. Then they saw embarrassing losses on the road against those same Real Salt Lake and Dallas teams, as well as against Colorado. Not to mention that Vancouver pretty much won the Cascadia Cup by a landslide at Century Link field in a game that piled on to the fact that the club had gone from Supporters’ Shield favorite to being on the cusp of falling out of the playoffs. The club isn’t as bad as the ratio numbers display—as suggested by our soon-to-be-published xGD 2.0—but it wasn’t the type of season that they want to pin up on Mom’s fridge.

Going forward, with all the pressure the supporters have on Sigi Schmid, this is a season where he may need to find the minimum of an MLS Cup Final appearance to save his job. With an improved back line and a full season of both Martins and Clint Dempsey, along with the addition of a creative player like Marco Pappa coming out of the midfield, the club has all the pieces at their disposal to get to the playoffs rather comfortably. And once they get there, it’s all going to be all about the current health of the squad. The injury bug has not been favorable for the Sounders in the past, but that said, their depth has also improved. The patience has worn thin on the Schmid coaching regime. It’s time for some real hardware.

Crowdsourcing Results

American Soccer Analysis readers seem to think that the Sounders will continue to have success in 2014 . They have projected Seattle to finish 3rd in the Western Conference this season, with 28.1% of voters placing them there, and 63.3% of voters placing them somewhere in the top three. There are only a few doubters, with a very small 6.4% of voters placing them in spots six through nine, out of the playoffs.

MLS Attack Pairings

Today, I was asked simply, which team has the best pairing in MLS? It’s a good question, and oddly one that I’ve been asked a lot and. Despite the frequency of requests, it’s something that I have trouble answering. There are a lot of ways to measure performance for attacking personnel, but due to my time restraints I found the easiest way to do this was to go to Squawka and use their attack score.

Below is a listing of teams and their two highest* attacking score combos. Since it’s a purely cumulative stat I pro-rated it to 90 minutes. As you probably wouldn’t be shocked to find out. Mike Magee, Landon Donovan and Federico Hinguian round out the top-3.

Player	Team	Minutes	Attack Score	AS per 90
Mike Magee	Chicago	1051	582	50
Patrick Nyarko	Chicago	1554	527	31
Carlos Alvarez	Chivas USA	1653	360	20
Eric Avila	Chivas USA	1634	260	14
Dillion Powers	Colorado	2035	576	25
Deshorn Brown	Colorado	1800	448	22
Federico Hinguian	Columbus	2142	1162	49
Dominic Oduro	Columbus	1987	610	28
Dwayne De Rosario	DC United	1208	343	26
Kyle Porter	DC United	1403	244	16
Blas Perez	FC Dallas	1569	584	33
Michel	FC Dallas	2004	538	24
Brad Davis	Houston	1408	540	35
Will Bruin	Houston	1721	472	25
Landon Donovan	LA Galaxy	1380	753	49
Robbie Keane	LA Galaxy	1320	698	48
Marco Di Vaio	Montreal	1868	897	43
Felipe Martins	Montreal	1768	535	27
Diego Fagundez	New England	1621	613	34
Lee Nguyen	New England	2137	527	22
Thierry Henry	New York	1952	854	39
Tim Cahill	New York	1761	441	23
Sabastian Le Toux	Philadelphia	1864	729	35
Conor Casey	Philadelphia	1528	667	39
Darlington Nagbe	Portland	1895	761	36
Diego Valeri	Portland	2072	725	31
Javier Morales	RSL	1796	838	42
Ned Grabavoy	RSL	2043	467	21
Chris Wondolowski	San Jose	1890	530	25
Shea Salinas	San Jose	1400	434	28
Eddie Johnson	Seattle	1300	461	32
Obafemi Martins	Seattle	1024	448	39
Graham Zusi	Sporting KC	1860	680	33
Claudio Bieler	Sporting KC	1986	620	28
Jonathan Osorio	Toronto FC	1164	397	31
Robert Earnshaw	Toronto FC	1495	333	20
Camilo Sanvezzo	Vancouver	1674	876	47
Kenny Miller	Vancouver	1305	506	35

There are a couple of key individuals missing from this list that may or may not “pop out” at you. The first is Philadelphia’s top goal scorer Jack McInereny. Part of this is due to his missing time with the Mens National Team during the early rounds of the Gold Cup tournament. The other part is that outside of his bunches of goals scored early in the season he hasn’t done much else with his time.

The other name, though less likely to be spotted, is Luis Silva. Since arriving at DC United, he’s posted the top overall score determined by Squawka, as well as the highest rating on Whoscored, with his new club. However, he’s only played 5 games and a total of 420 minutes for DCU, so it’s a small sample and I decided to drop him from the listing. This lowered DC United’s end score rather dramatically and yet corresponds quite well with whatever combination player they might be able to muster.

Now, taking all those dynamic duos and adding them together gave us a combined score of the two best attacking players on each team. Here are those in order.

	AS per 90
LA Galaxy	97
Vancouver	82
Chicago	80
Crew	76
Philadelphia	74
Seattle	71
Montreal	70
Portland	68
RSL	63
New York	62
Sporting KC	61
Houston	59
FC Dallas	58
New England	56
San Jose	53
Toronto FC	51
Rapids	48
DC United	41
Chivas	34

It’s not a surprise to see LA at the top of any such list. Robbie Keane and Donovan have long be herald as the best dynamic attacking duo of the league. But if you are looking beyond those two the teams are rather surprising. Vancouver, Chicago, Columbus and Philly all make up the top-5 with the often scrutinized Obafemi Martins and Eddie Johnson contributions falling just outside the grouping.

Another interesting note, taking us further towards the discussion of single best player. While individual performances matter, it’s about team accomplishment rather than singular performances over the stretch of the season. It’s obvious that while Chicago and Columbus both have had outstanding performances from their key men up top, they are lacking something on a team level such that these individual metrics don’t correspond entirely to the tables at the end of the day.