PDO: Week 22 Rankings

I dropped the ball a bit last week not updating the tables. Here is how they look as of this past weekend’s results.

Team Shots Against GA Sv% SoT GF SH% TSR Points Games PPG PDO
Portland Timbers 89 20 77.53% 101 30 29.70% 0.532 34 21 1.62 1072
New England Rev. 85 19 77.65% 84 22 26.19% 0.497 30 21 1.43 1038
New York Red Bulls 92 27 70.65% 88 29 32.95% 0.489 35 22 1.59 1036
Houston Dynamo 83 20 75.90% 81 22 27.16% 0.494 30 20 1.5 1031
Salt Lake 102 24 76.47% 121 32 26.45% 0.543 37 22 1.68 1029
Dallas 109 27 75.23% 98 27 27.55% 0.473 32 21 1.52 1028
Vancouver Whitecaps 92 29 68.48% 98 32 32.65% 0.516 32 21 1.52 1011
Philadelphia Union 97 30 69.07% 102 32 31.37% 0.513 34 22 1.55 1004
Seattle Sounders FC 80 22 72.50% 76 21 27.63% 0.487 28 19 1.47 1001
Colorado Rapids 92 24 73.91% 91 23 25.27% 0.497 34 23 1.48 992
Montreal Impact 92 29 68.48% 105 31 29.52% 0.533 35 20 1.75 980
Columbus Crew 99 27 72.73% 94 23 24.47% 0.487 23 21 1.1 972
Kansas City 63 21 66.67% 103 29 28.16% 0.620 36 22 1.64 948
San Jose Earthquakes 109 33 69.72% 87 21 24.14% 0.444 27 22 1.23 939
CD Chivas USA 118 37 68.64% 69 17 24.64% 0.369 17 21 0.81 933
L.A. Galaxy 76 27 64.47% 108 30 27.78% 0.587 33 22 1.5 923
Toronto FC 77 29 62.34% 69 17 24.64% 0.473 17 21 0.81 870
Chicago Fire 85 30 64.71% 103 20 19.42% 0.548 25 20 1.25 841
DC 93 35 62.37% 62 8 12.90% 0.400 10 21 0.48 753

Again, Portland, even with their loss, retains their title as the luckiest club in MLS by PDO*. Meanwhile, New England continues to mystify as they pretty much pulled that win together with duct tape, spit and some wood glue. Is Jay Heaps really Macgyver? I’m going to guess no, though as we talked about on the podcast, home field advantage not only helps to place pressure on the ref, but it may also encourage more aggression from the home side. One can only wonder if Jay Heaps is able to simulate this effect with a stirring pep talk prior to the match against a terrible team on the road.

However, just like how Chivas and Toronto have been largely unaffected this season, likely due to some terrible play and a limited talent base, you have to wonder if we are seeing many of these clubs performing at their true rates. I don’t think you can completely attribute RSL’s finishing success to luck when defensively they have some great pieces and offensively they, again, have some great pieces.

As we watch the year unfold it’s going to be rather interesting to see where these clubs end up with playoff spots at seasons end.

 

*PDO here is based on shots on target, not total attempts. 

Advertisements

ASA Podcast XII: The one where we talk PDO

I hope you all have enjoyed the build up to this week’s podcast concerning PDO. In today’s episode we review the Gold Cup situation with the Mens National Team, talk a bit about PDO, and then preview Real Salt Lake and Dallas FC (so that you can see how grossly wrong we were). Enjoy!

PDO: Major League Soccer Table 7/12/13

We had a light introduction of the statistic of PDO last evening, and as promised, here is the corresponding table as it exists for Major League Soccer.

Team Games PPG TSR PDO
New England Rev. 17 1.41 0.497 1101
Portland Timbers 18 1.67 0.530 1100
Seattle Sounders FC 16 1.50 0.469 1071
FC Dallas 19 1.63 0.474 1060
Real Salt Lake 19 1.79 0.569 1049
Montreal Impact 17 1.82 0.522 1039
New York Red Bulls 19 1.47 0.480 1039
Houston Dynamo 18 1.44 0.493 1034
Vancouver Whitecaps 18 1.61 0.525 1016
Colorado Rapids 20 1.35 0.497 1016
Columbus Crew 19 1.21 0.489 1012
Philadelphia Union 19 1.42 0.520 975
L.A. Galaxy 19 1.58 0.594 967
Sporting Kansas City 19 1.58 0.603 965
San Jose Earthquakes 20 1.05 0.432 945
Toronto FC 17 0.76 0.460 940
CD Chivas USA 18 0.78 0.384 937
Chicago Fire 17 1.24 0.551 864
DC United 19 0.53 0.382 802

If you’re trying to figure out what to look at, there are a couple of things that may, possibly, jump out at you. The first being the New England Revolution sandwiched between the two best teams in MLS, Portland and Montreal. Admittedly, the club has been on a sort of hot streak but it a large percentage of their PDO comes from the lack of goals they’ve conceded. Opposing clubs have the worst conversion rate of Goals/Shots against New England.

Similarly, you see Sporting Kansas City sitting 15th in PDO and can’t help but be a little bit scared of what could come in the second half should there be positive regression. Considering all the head scratching that the media and supporters have concerning Seattle’s early exploits, Sporting has gone largely unnoticed with an underwhelming start. Yet, the TSR (explanation linked–we’ll get into this more down the road) is very much there and so are the points. An interesting out come for a club that (deservedly) had the hype machine cranked to full.

Oh, and DC United is definitely still a combination bad and unlucky. Sorry, Drew.

A little information on: PDO

With the holiday behind us we can once again start to return to the business at hand. The half-way mark is upon us and MLS has given us an exciting and very tight race across both the Western and Eastern conferences.

With that comes another week of podcasts. #AnalysisEvolved. This week we plan on talking a bit about a statistic by the name PDO. Unlike how you might imagine most statistic names coming about, or things with three random letters, this is not an acronym. It’s pronounced how it’s sounds.

Originally a hockey metric, PDO is simply the sum of save percentage and scoring percentage, then multiplied times 1000. The rest of the history as it applies to soccer isn’t necessarily important.

A great introduction to the idea and how it applies to the sport is given by Tyler Dellow of mc79hockey.com, and there is another introduction on the site Pension Plan Puppet by one “Skinny Fish.”

Both sites give examples of how PDO can potentially isolate a team’s performance over the course of a season and compare those to past performances, various incarnations of the team, and of course, other teams.

I can’t directly attribute who was the first to apply the team analysis to the sport of soccer(Grayson confirmed he was the first…). But the oldest article I can find referencing its usage within the sport comes from the ever-smart and sophisticated Canuck, James Grayson. His series of introductions to the metric is linked below.

A Premier: PDO

PDO – part I

PDO – part II

Along with an explanation of the stat and some information about how it regresses to the mean—because it’s fantastic at doing that—there is also a bit of information about how it can be used to compare different clubs to one another.

Basically, it comes down to being one of the best methods to determine the barometer of a team. While we can look at point totals and standings in the table, PDO can reasonably tell us if a team is over performing or under performing.

I’m not in any way an expert on this stat. There are of course some occasions were you may run into issues with trying to apply it to a specific scenario, and I could point anyone in search of more answers on the subject in better directions than toward myself. I could easily name about a dozen or so people that are much more versed in this metric than I am.

However, since we were going to take about it on our podcast this weekend, I wanted to give the reader/listener an opportunity to find some quick and easy references to the material before hearing us talk about it this weekend.

I’ll have an updated PDO standings for you all tomorrow which will lead into our discussions on Saturday.