Top 50 Total Shots Created: MLS Week 13

I’ve been terrible with trying to keep up with this quantitative metric, but I figured it wouldn’t hurt to throw out an updated version in a vain attempt to try to play catch up with the status quo, being that the league is crawling towards the World Cup break.

Really, the point of this exercise is to try and capture how often players are creating shots–not just for themselves, but for teammates. It’s still pretty simplistic, and by no means the definitive answer to who the most valuable attackers are, but it’s a start in moving away from basing value judgements on goal totals.

To be as clear as possible this is not a metric that measures quality or success of the shot. It’s purely about opportunities to score. Either by way of putting mates* in position to score through passes that lead to shots–key passes–or to create a shot by himself–assisted or not–are the ways I count shots created.

*Editor loves word choice.

One thing I did do to include the best available and least luck-influenced player was to set a threshold of 700 minutes played. That limit was arbitrary and selected merely based upon the results of compiling the list. For that reason, and no other, you won’t see individuals such as Michael Bradley, Gilberto, Brad Davis, Joao Plata, Marco Di Vaio and Kekuta Manneh on this list even though their shot creation rates merited a position in the top 50. I am very high on both Plata and Manneh, and I would love to see both surpass the 600-minute mark and really fly beyond 2,000 minutes this season so we can see what their stable versions look like.

50-33:  The Above Average

Rank	Name	Club	Position	Minutes	Key Passes	Assists	Shots	ShC	ShC/90
50	Blas Perez	Dallas	FWD	899	6	2	24	32	3.20
49	Nick DeLeon	DC	MF	1026	12	2	23	37	3.25
48	Vincent Nogueira	Philadelphia	MF	1348	17	2	30	49	3.27
47	Juninho	LA	MF	962	9	3	23	35	3.27
46	Benny Feilhaber	KC	MF	1260	26	3	17	46	3.29
45	Erick Torres	Chivas	FWD	1186	8	1	37	46	3.49
44	Jack McInernery	Montreal	FWD	844	11	1	21	33	3.52
43	Baggio Husidić	LA	MF	761	13	1	16	30	3.55
42	Dillion Powers	Colorado	MF	825	21	3	9	33	3.60
41	Lamar Neagle	Seattle	MF	987	10	2	28	40	3.65
40	Teal Bunbury	NE	FWD	1170	15	3	30	48	3.69
39	Felipe Martins	Montreal	MF	996	15	2	24	41	3.70
38	Jairo Arrieta	Columbus	FWD	818	9	0	25	34	3.74
37	Max Urruti	Portland	FWD	744	5	0	26	31	3.75
36	Justin Mapp	Montreal	MF	949	17	4	19	40	3.79
35	Travis Ishizaki	LA	MF	735	20	1	10	31	3.80
34	Andrew Wenger	Philadelphia	FWD	1012	11	1	31	43	3.82
33	Diego Fagundez	NE	MF	1086	8	2	37	47	3.90

I’ll admit there is quite a bit of disparity between Diego Fagundez (#33) and Nick DeLeon (#49). This group does however hold a few names seems that, to my mind, seem to fit together. Blas Perez (#50), Erick Torres (#45), Jack McInerney (#44) and Andrew Wenger (#34) all are viewed a bit differently in terms of success, but, again, this isn’t about results-based productivity so much as process-based productivity. We’re merely looking at how much they’re involved in creating goal scoring chances, regardless of the quality of those chances or where they are located. In that context it makes more sense.

The lone surprise for me in this tier is Justin Mapp. I would have assumed he’d be much higher on this list being that he’s been on the few bright spots for Montreal a long with JackMac.

 

32-10:  The Good.

Rank	Name	Club	Position	Minutes	Key Passes	Assists	Shots	ShC	ShC/90
32	Chris Wondolowski	San Jose	FWD	810	6	0	30	36	4.00
31	Obafemi Martins	Seattle	FWD	1246	19	6	31	56	4.04
30	Michel	Dallas	MF	740	14	2	18	34	4.14
29	Lee Nguyen	NE	MF	1032	24	0	24	48	4.19
28	B. Wright-Phillips	NYRB	FWD	1051	8	0	41	49	4.20
27	Edson Buddle	Colorado	FWD	707	10	1	22	33	4.20
26	Shea Salinas	San Jose	MF	916	32	4	7	43	4.22
25	Sabastian Fernandez	Vancouver	FWD	654	10	0	21	31	4.27
24	Will Bruin	Houston	FWD	1221	20	1	37	58	4.28
23	Graham Zusi	KC	FWD	794	24	3	11	38	4.31
22	Alvaro Saborio	Real Salt Lake	FWD	869	5	2	35	42	4.35
21	Leonardo Fernandez	Philadelphia	FWD	701	13	1	20	34	4.37
20	Giles Barnes	Houston	FWD	1335	12	2	51	65	4.38
19	Gaston Fernandez	Portland	FWD	757	19	0	18	37	4.40
18	Mike Magee	Chicago	FWD	714	9	2	24	35	4.41
17	Harry Shipp	Chicago	FWD	894	23	4	17	44	4.43
16	Marco Pappa	Seattle	MF	751	12	1	24	37	4.43
15	Mauro Diaz	Dallas	MF	646	16	2	14	32	4.46
14	Bernando Anor	Columbus	MF	718	11	0	25	36	4.51
13	Cristian Maidana	Philadelphia	MF	871	23	2	20	45	4.65
12	Quincy Amarikwa	Chicago	FWD	880	15	4	28	47	4.81
11	Dom Dwyer	KC	FWD	1050	7	0	50	57	4.89
10	Deshorn Brown	Colorado	FWD	902	6	0	43	49	4.89

Two other names that are notable here. Edson Buddle (#27)–whom everyone thought was done two years ago when he was traded to Colorado–and Marco Pappa (#16), who was kind of a last minute signing before the start of the season, and who was a serious question mark considering his lack of playing time in the Netherlands.  Now both of these individuals that were stamped as likely non-essentials are two of most involved in the creation of their clubs attack. Lee Nguyen (29) coming in higher than Obafemi Martins (31) makes me laugh, simply because Martins is second in the league in assists and most people still hold that to being the truest or, perhaps, the most obvious sign of team goal contributions. Yet Nguyen has been a catalyst for New England and is simply their most valuable player when it comes to finding the ability to create chances. This is the meat and potatoes of the list.

9-4: The Elite.

Rank	Name	Club	Position	Minutes	Key Passes	Assists	Shots	ShC	ShC/90
9	Javier Morales	Real Salt Lake	MF	1154	41	5	21	67	5.23
8	Fabian Espindola	DC	FWD	1086	30	4	30	64	5.30
7	Diego Valeri	Portland	MF	1117	28	5	37	70	5.64
6	Landon Donovan	LA	MF	802	24	2	25	51	5.72
5	Thierry Henry	NYRB	FWD	1170	23	4	49	76	5.85
4	Federico Higuain	Columbus	FWD	1080	39	5	27	71	5.92

So there that is. There shouldn’t be any argument here with any of these names. Fabian Espindola (#8) is the sole reason DC even has a shot at the playoffs. He is going to get every opportunity to be ‘the man’ in black and red. Landon Donovan (#6) despite his uncanny snubbery from the US National Team is still clearly a major factor for the Galaxy and their attack. Sticking with the theme of decline in skills, Thierry Henry (#5) is still one of the greatest to ever play in MLS.

Oh, and I’m just biding my time for Higuian to get past this “slump” and jet into the MVP Candidate category… because that’s simply where he belongs. More on that down the road.

3-1:  The MVP Candidates.

Rank	Name	Club	Position	Minutes	Key Passes	Assists	Shots	ShC	ShC/90
3	Robbie Keane	LA	FWD	990	19	2	45	66	6.00
2	Clint Dempsey	Seattle	MF	751	14	2	43	59	7.07
1	Pedro Morales	Whitecaps	MF	821	31	4	38	73	8.00

Clint Dempsey (#2) has had the kind of year that is simply bananas. It’s been so crazy that it’s somehow eclipsed the Pedro Morales (#1) show that is going on just a few short hours north of him. Sure, these guys take penalty kicks, but that’s only a small fraction of their shots generated. If these two take this same show into the later stages of the season I can’t think there would be much reason to consider anyone else for MVP.

Oh, I guess you could probably throw Robbie Keane‘s (#3) name in that list, too. People forget about ol’ faithful, but even without his P.I.C. (read: ‘Partner in Crime’ for those that aren’t as hip as I am) for a game or two here and there, he’s still been incredible. Currently he ranks third in individual expected goals, proving that he also finds dangerous places to take his shots and doesn’t hesitate to pull the trigger. Oh, and despite the angry looks and words AND finger wags, he gets his teammates those same opportunities.

And here’s the Excel File for the top 50.

ASA Fantasy League Update Round 1: Gotta Have Higuain

MLS Fantasy players, it’s that time of the week to make your transfers–if you haven’t already–and get that starting XI ready for the weekend. Obviously the big winners of the week are basically anyone who owned either Mauro Rosales, Mario Diaz—or to go in a different direction, less ‘M’ related direction—Federico Higuain. Didn’t have any of those picks? Not a big deal, now is a team to reload and get cleaned up. We’ve got round 2 this weekend with some interesting match-ups.

Here is the dream XI for last week:

And here are the current league standings as of round 1.

#	Team	Manager	RD	%AARd	TOT	Team$	Captain	Points
1	Khal Jogo	Bazzo	79	1.927	79	119.3	Rosales	12
2	This Stuff Kicks	Cris Pannullo	75	1.829	75	120.7	Keane	4
2	Major League Clowns	Tom Worville	75	1.829	75	118.8	Higuain	22
4	Bridgeburners FC	Chris Gluck	74	1.805	74	120.2	Valeri	4
5	Cal Poly FC	Emil Barycki	73	1.780	73	115.2	Higuain	22
6	En Fuego	e margolis	70	1.707	70	120.3	Nagbe	6
7	LingeringwithIntent	Jason Onorati	69	1.683	69	119.1	Higuain	22
8	The Other Higuain	Jacob Beckett	64	1.561	64	119.7	Urruti	4
8	A.S. Trincamp	Martin F	64	1.561	64	119.3	Higuian	22
10	DallasTilIDie	Benjamin Hester	62	1.512	62	116.6	Keane	4
11	Real Sporting Utd FC	Eric J. Walcott	60	1.463	60	118	Valeri	4
12	WOMBATZ	Casey Cannon	59	1.439	59	114.6	Higuain	22
13	NotToBeFeared	Harrison Crow	53	1.293	53	119.6	Keane	4
14	PasarChino!	Jason Poon	48	1.171	48	120.2	Higuain	22
15	Amrodg	Mick Lathrop	44	1.073	44	116.2	Martins	4
16	PDX Hoosiers	Brad Snook	39	0.951	39	120.2	Nagbe	6
16	Draft Code United	Louis Pardillo	39	0.951	39	119.5	Beiler	0
18	PortlandatHeart	Forrest Ellis	34	0.829	34	118.7	Valeri	4
19	Tootie Urruti	Drew Olsen	33	0.805	33	118.6	Magee	0
20	letskillrobots	Bill Vegas	22	0.537	22	117.6	Magee	0
	Averages		56.8	1.385	56.8	118.62		9.4

RD: Round Points

%AARd: Percentage Above Average Round Points

Team$: How much the team spent on their players

A quick thought—and my heart goes out to our own PasarChino! for this one—you gotta start Rimando, buddy! You sat the highest point total in the league. Ouch! As for our crew here at ASA, most of us (Jacob, Drew, Jason, myself and poor Bill) did okay, with the most notable stand out of the bunch being Cris Pannullo and a bit farther down Chris Gluck. We’ll head to the next round and see if those two can distance themselves from the rest of the ASA community.

Again, this is for an undisclosed, not-yet-valued prize that is available to all whom play. It could be a Meatloaf interactive blu-ray, it could be a soccer ball, it could be a scarf of your choosing. Matty might spend a couple hours on Skype teaching you how to use R. Who knows what we’ll come up with. The only promise is that it won’t be terrible. Code to enter is 9593-1668, should you care to join in the fun/recklessness that is fantasy sports.

The three teams that are noticeably absent this round are Columbus Crew, DC United and LA Galaxy. I’m sure this will kind of cause a bit of reshuffling to occur as many, including myself, had been sporting Robbie Keane as their captain, and it will most certainly require some movement along the bench. But this is where you earn the coveted prize. No, not the Sheva, though I’m sure we can come up with an equally inspiring annual trophy name.

I’m sure you all have better advice/thoughts than what I have for MLS fantasy, so I’ll point you towards a couple of sites that have some stats and feed back on last week.

– Mr. Fantasy, Ben Jata, recaps the hap’s with round 1.

– Big D Soccer does a nice preview of not just Dallas FC players but also some thoughts on MLS as a whole.

– Sticking with the Texas theme, Dynamo Theory has some fantastic numbers/stuff that deserves recognition for their work. Great job by TraviTheRabbi and I would say give him a follow on twitter but I don’t see any such thing connected to his account, and that makes me a sad panda. Anyways…go read the article here. Solid, solid stuff.

I leave you with the current top-50 hottest players being selected as of 10:30 last night. I’ve equipped you to make some good decisions. Now go forth and conquer. The catch is that only one of you will win. Anyone have any top secrets for how they plan on winning the league? I hear finding people that stop goals and in return score goals are really good to have? Any other methods or suggestions?

Player	Team	Pos	Selected	Price	Round	Total
Sarkodie	HOU	DEF	33.9%	$6.6	9	9
Remick	SEA	DEF	33.8%	$4.1	8	8
Fagundez	NE	MID	28.9%	$8.0	3	3
Yedlin	SEA	DEF	26.0%	$7.5	7	7
Kennedy	CHV	GKP	25.6%	$4.5	4	4
Fondy	CHV	FWD	24.9%	$4.0	0	0
Rimando	RSL	GKP	23.3%	$6.1	15	15
Magee	CHI	FWD	21.5%	$10.5	0	0
Bruin	HOU	FWD	21.2%	$8.2	15	15
Zusi	KC	MID	20.6%	$11.0	3	3
Plata	RSL	FWD	20.1%	$7.0	9	9
Griffiths	COL	DEF	19.3%	$4.0	0	0
Moor	COL	DEF	18.6%	$7.0	0	0
Collin	KC	DEF	18.0%	$10.0	3	3
Loyd	DAL	DEF	17.9%	$5.5	0	0
Jewsbury	POR	DEF	17.7%	$6.5	2	2
Nagbe	POR	MID	17.1%	$9.5	3	3
Juninho	LA	MID	17.0%	$7.0	3	3
Keane	LA	FWD	17.0%	$10.9	2	2
Cronin	SJ	MID	17.0%	$6.5	0	0
Porter	DC	MID	16.7%	$5.0	1	1
Ricketts	POR	GKP	16.7%	$6.0	5	5
Harrington	POR	DEF	16.5%	$7.5	3	3
Jimenez	CLB	MID	16.0%	$5.5	6	6
Rosales	CHV	MID	14.7%	$7.6	12	12
Hall	HOU	GKP	14.3%	$6.0	8	8
Valeri	POR	MID	14.1%	$10.5	2	2
Wondolowski	SJ	FWD	13.6%	$9.5	0	0
Higuaín	CLB	FWD	13.5%	$10.5	11	11
Burling	CHV	DEF	12.7%	$5.1	9	9
McNamara	CHV	MID	12.6%	$4.6	7	7
Ashe	HOU	DEF	12.6%	$7.1	11	11
Malki	MTL	MID	12.6%	$4.0	0	0
Donovan	LA	MID	12.5%	$11.0	7	7
Moffat	DAL	MID	12.2%	$5.9	0	0
Palmer-Brown	KC	DEF	11.6%	$4.0	0	0
Defoe	TOR	FWD	11.6%	$10.5	0	0
Horst	HOU	DEF	11.5%	$5.6	8	8
Melia	CHV	GKP	11.1%	$3.0	0	0
Parke	DC	DEF	10.7%	$6.9	2	2
Martins	SEA	FWD	10.7%	$9.5	2	2
Bradley	TOR	MID	10.4%	$10.0	0	0
McBean	LA	FWD	10.0%	$5.0	0	0
E. Miller	MTL	DEF	9.8%	$4.5	2	2
MacMath	PHI	GKP	9.6%	$5.0	3	3
Manneh	VAN	FWD	9.6%	$6.5	1	1
Urruti	POR	FWD	9.4%	$7.0	2	2
Messoudi	MTL	MID	9.0%	$4.0	0	0
Henry	NY	FWD	8.9%	$11.0	0	0
Franklin	DC	DEF	8.8%	$7.9	2	2

Season Preview: FC Dallas

Over the past three seasons, fans of the Hoops have seen their team crash down from the high of a 2010 MLS Cup Finals appearance . In 2012, those same fans endured a 13-game winless streak, to be followed by another 11-game winless streak in 2013, resulting in Dallas missing the playoffs each of the past two seasons. What made matters worse was their red hot start to 2013, where they raced out to a 7-2-3 record and 24 points by the end of May, good for first place in the West. After missing out on the post season following such a hot start, Schellas Hyndman was shown the door (officially resigned), and former FC Dallas player and long time assistant Oscar Pareja was hired to right the ship. There is much optimism surrounding Dallas as they look to put the past behind them and get themselves back into the playoffs in 2014.

2013 Finish: 44 Points, 8th in the Western Conference, Missed MLS Playoffs

Player Added	Position	Acquired from:	Player Lost	Position	To
Ryan Hollingshead	M	2013 SuperDraft	Ugo Ihemelu	D	option declined
Adam Moffat	M	traded from Seattle	Ramon Nunez	M	option declined
Brian Span	M	weighted lottery	Erick	M	option declined
Hendry Thomas	M	traded from Colorado	Jackson	M	traded to Toronto
Andres Escobar	F	Loan (Dynamo Kiev)	Victor Ulloa	M	out of contract
David Texeira	F	Free (FC Groningen)	David Ferreira	M	option declined
			Kenny Cooper	F	traded to Seattle

Roster Churn: 77.97% returning minutes (12th lowest in MLS)

Lots of optimism surround the Hoops after the theft appointment of Oscar “Papi” Pareja as head coach, and for good reason. The former Colorado Rapids head coach was highly regarded by the front office, was a contender for MLS Coach of the Year after Colorado overachieved last season with their young roster, thanks in some part to Pareja’s guidance.

 

While the optimism is high, there are also some concerns with the team, as they jettisoned off a few key pieces from last year (Captain David Ferreira, striker Kenny Cooper, and winger Jackson), and now FC Dallas must work through that awkward transition where new faces and a new coach try to get on the same page. Will the front office and Dallas fans be patient enough to wait for Pareja to work his magic, given they’ve missed the playoffs two season in a row now? His first season in Colorado was forgettable (11-19-4, no playoffs), but there were clear signs of improvement in his second year (14-11-9, knock out rounds). 

 

With the exception of Blas Perez, the Dallas attack is young. [Fabian] Castillo (21), [Andres] Escobar (22), and [Mauro] Diaz (22) make for a very dangerous trio if they can develop their chemistry together. Diaz has been handed the number 10 jersey and will hold the keys to driving the Hoops offense this season. Much like it was with his predecessor, Captain Ferreira, where Diaz goes, FC Dallas will follow. And while the short glimpses we saw of Diaz were promising last season, being the focal point and main man for the entire season in a new league is another thing to handle altogether. 

 

Last season’s Achilles heel had to be the central midfield for Dallas. When holding midfielder Peter Luccin went down with an injury before the season began, FC Dallas was left without any adequate cover, and it lost its midfield bite and any real quality in linking the defense to the attack. That has been addressed strongly this off season with the acquisition of former Rapids midfielder Hendry Thomas (who is basically a tank on cleats) and former Sounder Adam Moffat (better link up player). Not to mention Luccin is back and healthy, and Andrew Jacobson got a good solid year of starter experience under his belt. Dallas’ thinnest spot in 2013 has suddenly become their greatest depth in 2014.

 

The Dallas defense looks largely the same with everyone from last year who got significant playing time returning. The debate now is whether that’s a good or a bad thing. Jair Benitez is now a year older, and while he provides help in offense (hello golazo!), his defending remains inconsistent. Zach Loyd had a subpar year by his standards in 2013. Whether he can regain his form that led him to be a USMNT call up waits to be seen. 

 

Finally, the last question mark for Dallas is what will Pareja do with homegrown standout Kellyn Acosta? His breakthrough 2013 was a huge step in the right direction for the Homegrown Player program, but where does he fit on this team? In 2013 he filled in admirably—at times better than Loyd at right back—but the teenage star has spoken that his preferred position is defensive midfield. Regardless of where he plays, Acosta is a talent that needs to see the field as much as possible. 

FC Dallas finished 2013 as the epitome of average statistically, posting the 10th best expected goal differential, as well as the 10th best shot attempt ratio. Hope rests in Pareja’s ability to work with a team that has added six new players to date, and to inject this team with a little magic that worked for Pareja’s former team last season.

 

Crowd Sourcing Placement: 8th place in Western Conference; 107 of the 406 8th-place votes (26.35%), and 321 of 404 (79.5%) of voters felt that FC Dallas would not make the playoffs in 2014.

*ExpGD is the same as our metric xGD.