Some Facts about Corner Kicks

I find myself getting worked up for corner kicks. Whether it’s anxiety because the opponent is about to whip one into the Timbers’ box, or hope because the Timbers are about to do the same to the opponent. There is a chance that corner kick will result in a goal, so perhaps my feelings are justified. However, statistics don’t find corner kicks nearly as exciting.

In 2013, our data shows that the 3,185 corner kicks taken led to just 1,110 shots, 258 of which were on target and 80 of which found the back of the net. That means that only one-third of corner kicks ever produced shots, and the finishing rate on those shots was just 7.2 percent–compared to the league’s typical finishing rate of about 10 percent in 2013. Though shots from corners tended to be struck closer to goal, they also tend to be taken with the head, which is the least efficient body part for finishing. In the end, just one of 40 corner kicks could be found in the back of the net (2.5%).

For comparison’s sake, let’s take a look at how often other possessions lead to goals. Thanks to Alex at Tempo-Free Soccer, we can estimate that an average team gets about 4,500 possessions in a season. Here’s how those 4,500 possessions end for a league-average team.

End in…	Possessions	Shots	Shots/Poss	Goals	Goals/Poss	Finish%
Corner	170	60	0.353	4.3	0.025	7.2%
Attacking 3rd*	2,030	375	0.180	40.0	0.019	10.7%

We can see that, while corner kicks produced about twice as many shots per possession than typical attacking-third possessions, they only led to about 25% more goals per possession due to packed boxes and low finishing rates. But not all attacking-third possession are equal, and it seems as though many of the possessions that lead to corners come from attacking-third possessions that are deeper in the opponent’s territory. As the attacking-third possessions get closer and closer to goal, they probably become more dangerous than corner kicks. It may be more correct to say that teams don’t earn corners, but rather, they settle for corners.

These numbers aren’t as precise as I’d like, but they still sobered me up a little for corner kicks. But no promises that I can keep my cool if the Timbers are facing a corner in the waning seconds stoppage time.

*Teams typically lose possession on bad passes about 89 times per match, and about 43.5 of those instances occur in the attacking third according to OPTA data. This led to a 48.8-percent estimate of possessions ending in the final third.

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Top 50 Total Shots Created: MLS Week 13

I’ve been terrible with trying to keep up with this quantitative metric, but I figured it wouldn’t hurt to throw out an updated version in a vain attempt to try to play catch up with the status quo, being that the league is crawling towards the World Cup break.

Really, the point of this exercise is to try and capture how often players are creating shots–not just for themselves, but for teammates. It’s still pretty simplistic, and by no means the definitive answer to who the most valuable attackers are, but it’s a start in moving away from basing value judgements on goal totals.

To be as clear as possible this is not a metric that measures quality or success of the shot. It’s purely about opportunities to score. Either by way of putting mates* in position to score through passes that lead to shots–key passes–or to create a shot by himself–assisted or not–are the ways I count shots created.

*Editor loves word choice.

One thing I did do to include the best available and least luck-influenced player was to set a threshold of 700 minutes played. That limit was arbitrary and selected merely based upon the results of compiling the list. For that reason, and no other, you won’t see individuals such as Michael Bradley, Gilberto, Brad Davis, Joao Plata, Marco Di Vaio and Kekuta Manneh on this list even though their shot creation rates merited a position in the top 50. I am very high on both Plata and Manneh, and I would love to see both surpass the 600-minute mark and really fly beyond 2,000 minutes this season so we can see what their stable versions look like.

50-33:  The Above Average

Rank	Name	Club	Position	Minutes	Key Passes	Assists	Shots	ShC	ShC/90
50	Blas Perez	Dallas	FWD	899	6	2	24	32	3.20
49	Nick DeLeon	DC	MF	1026	12	2	23	37	3.25
48	Vincent Nogueira	Philadelphia	MF	1348	17	2	30	49	3.27
47	Juninho	LA	MF	962	9	3	23	35	3.27
46	Benny Feilhaber	KC	MF	1260	26	3	17	46	3.29
45	Erick Torres	Chivas	FWD	1186	8	1	37	46	3.49
44	Jack McInernery	Montreal	FWD	844	11	1	21	33	3.52
43	Baggio Husidić	LA	MF	761	13	1	16	30	3.55
42	Dillion Powers	Colorado	MF	825	21	3	9	33	3.60
41	Lamar Neagle	Seattle	MF	987	10	2	28	40	3.65
40	Teal Bunbury	NE	FWD	1170	15	3	30	48	3.69
39	Felipe Martins	Montreal	MF	996	15	2	24	41	3.70
38	Jairo Arrieta	Columbus	FWD	818	9	0	25	34	3.74
37	Max Urruti	Portland	FWD	744	5	0	26	31	3.75
36	Justin Mapp	Montreal	MF	949	17	4	19	40	3.79
35	Travis Ishizaki	LA	MF	735	20	1	10	31	3.80
34	Andrew Wenger	Philadelphia	FWD	1012	11	1	31	43	3.82
33	Diego Fagundez	NE	MF	1086	8	2	37	47	3.90

I’ll admit there is quite a bit of disparity between Diego Fagundez (#33) and Nick DeLeon (#49). This group does however hold a few names seems that, to my mind, seem to fit together. Blas Perez (#50), Erick Torres (#45), Jack McInerney (#44) and Andrew Wenger (#34) all are viewed a bit differently in terms of success, but, again, this isn’t about results-based productivity so much as process-based productivity. We’re merely looking at how much they’re involved in creating goal scoring chances, regardless of the quality of those chances or where they are located. In that context it makes more sense.

The lone surprise for me in this tier is Justin Mapp. I would have assumed he’d be much higher on this list being that he’s been on the few bright spots for Montreal a long with JackMac.

 

32-10:  The Good.

Rank	Name	Club	Position	Minutes	Key Passes	Assists	Shots	ShC	ShC/90
32	Chris Wondolowski	San Jose	FWD	810	6	0	30	36	4.00
31	Obafemi Martins	Seattle	FWD	1246	19	6	31	56	4.04
30	Michel	Dallas	MF	740	14	2	18	34	4.14
29	Lee Nguyen	NE	MF	1032	24	0	24	48	4.19
28	B. Wright-Phillips	NYRB	FWD	1051	8	0	41	49	4.20
27	Edson Buddle	Colorado	FWD	707	10	1	22	33	4.20
26	Shea Salinas	San Jose	MF	916	32	4	7	43	4.22
25	Sabastian Fernandez	Vancouver	FWD	654	10	0	21	31	4.27
24	Will Bruin	Houston	FWD	1221	20	1	37	58	4.28
23	Graham Zusi	KC	FWD	794	24	3	11	38	4.31
22	Alvaro Saborio	Real Salt Lake	FWD	869	5	2	35	42	4.35
21	Leonardo Fernandez	Philadelphia	FWD	701	13	1	20	34	4.37
20	Giles Barnes	Houston	FWD	1335	12	2	51	65	4.38
19	Gaston Fernandez	Portland	FWD	757	19	0	18	37	4.40
18	Mike Magee	Chicago	FWD	714	9	2	24	35	4.41
17	Harry Shipp	Chicago	FWD	894	23	4	17	44	4.43
16	Marco Pappa	Seattle	MF	751	12	1	24	37	4.43
15	Mauro Diaz	Dallas	MF	646	16	2	14	32	4.46
14	Bernando Anor	Columbus	MF	718	11	0	25	36	4.51
13	Cristian Maidana	Philadelphia	MF	871	23	2	20	45	4.65
12	Quincy Amarikwa	Chicago	FWD	880	15	4	28	47	4.81
11	Dom Dwyer	KC	FWD	1050	7	0	50	57	4.89
10	Deshorn Brown	Colorado	FWD	902	6	0	43	49	4.89

Two other names that are notable here. Edson Buddle (#27)–whom everyone thought was done two years ago when he was traded to Colorado–and Marco Pappa (#16), who was kind of a last minute signing before the start of the season, and who was a serious question mark considering his lack of playing time in the Netherlands.  Now both of these individuals that were stamped as likely non-essentials are two of most involved in the creation of their clubs attack. Lee Nguyen (29) coming in higher than Obafemi Martins (31) makes me laugh, simply because Martins is second in the league in assists and most people still hold that to being the truest or, perhaps, the most obvious sign of team goal contributions. Yet Nguyen has been a catalyst for New England and is simply their most valuable player when it comes to finding the ability to create chances. This is the meat and potatoes of the list.

9-4: The Elite.

Rank	Name	Club	Position	Minutes	Key Passes	Assists	Shots	ShC	ShC/90
9	Javier Morales	Real Salt Lake	MF	1154	41	5	21	67	5.23
8	Fabian Espindola	DC	FWD	1086	30	4	30	64	5.30
7	Diego Valeri	Portland	MF	1117	28	5	37	70	5.64
6	Landon Donovan	LA	MF	802	24	2	25	51	5.72
5	Thierry Henry	NYRB	FWD	1170	23	4	49	76	5.85
4	Federico Higuain	Columbus	FWD	1080	39	5	27	71	5.92

So there that is. There shouldn’t be any argument here with any of these names. Fabian Espindola (#8) is the sole reason DC even has a shot at the playoffs. He is going to get every opportunity to be ‘the man’ in black and red. Landon Donovan (#6) despite his uncanny snubbery from the US National Team is still clearly a major factor for the Galaxy and their attack. Sticking with the theme of decline in skills, Thierry Henry (#5) is still one of the greatest to ever play in MLS.

Oh, and I’m just biding my time for Higuian to get past this “slump” and jet into the MVP Candidate category… because that’s simply where he belongs. More on that down the road.

3-1:  The MVP Candidates.

Rank	Name	Club	Position	Minutes	Key Passes	Assists	Shots	ShC	ShC/90
3	Robbie Keane	LA	FWD	990	19	2	45	66	6.00
2	Clint Dempsey	Seattle	MF	751	14	2	43	59	7.07
1	Pedro Morales	Whitecaps	MF	821	31	4	38	73	8.00

Clint Dempsey (#2) has had the kind of year that is simply bananas. It’s been so crazy that it’s somehow eclipsed the Pedro Morales (#1) show that is going on just a few short hours north of him. Sure, these guys take penalty kicks, but that’s only a small fraction of their shots generated. If these two take this same show into the later stages of the season I can’t think there would be much reason to consider anyone else for MVP.

Oh, I guess you could probably throw Robbie Keane‘s (#3) name in that list, too. People forget about ol’ faithful, but even without his P.I.C. (read: ‘Partner in Crime’ for those that aren’t as hip as I am) for a game or two here and there, he’s still been incredible. Currently he ranks third in individual expected goals, proving that he also finds dangerous places to take his shots and doesn’t hesitate to pull the trigger. Oh, and despite the angry looks and words AND finger wags, he gets his teammates those same opportunities.

And here’s the Excel File for the top 50.