Win Expectancy

Un-regressed Win Expectancy by Gamestate

This chart is from the perspective of the home team, constructed from 2013 and 2014 game data. There is no control for team ability, and please be aware of small sample sizes in certain gamestates (depicted by “Games” column).

Minute	Gamestate	Games	WinPct	TiePct	GD	xGD
15	-2	4	0.0%	25.0%	1.00	0.57
30	-2	11	0.0%	18.2%	0.00	0.35
45	-2	17	0.0%	11.8%	0.00	0.25
60	-2	21	0.0%	28.6%	0.43	0.51
75	-2	18	0.0%	11.1%	0.00	0.36
90	-2	17	0.0%	0.0%	-0.18	0.12
15	-1	46	30.4%	17.4%	0.52	0.60
30	-1	68	27.9%	23.5%	0.59	0.60
45	-1	81	17.3%	34.6%	0.54	0.48
60	-1	82	11.0%	29.3%	0.29	0.33
75	-1	81	3.7%	27.2%	0.14	0.22
90	-1	71	1.4%	12.7%	0.14	0.13
15	0	312	45.5%	31.7%	0.41	0.35
30	0	246	45.1%	32.5%	0.41	0.31
45	0	194	44.8%	34.5%	0.35	0.28
60	0	141	36.9%	43.3%	0.26	0.20
75	0	135	31.1%	54.1%	0.20	0.10
90	0	124	9.7%	83.1%	0.02	0.05
15	1	67	77.6%	13.4%	0.43	0.10
30	1	86	72.1%	20.9%	0.21	0.09
45	1	106	74.5%	17.9%	0.27	0.08
60	1	128	77.3%	18.8%	0.19	0.05
75	1	120	80.8%	15.8%	0.05	0.01
90	1	119	95.0%	5.0%	0.08	-0.02
15	2	6	83.3%	16.7%	0.33	0.27
30	2	21	85.7%	9.5%	0.24	-0.13
45	2	29	89.7%	6.9%	0.00	-0.04
60	2	42	90.5%	7.1%	-0.19	-0.15
75	2	47	95.7%	4.3%	0.04	-0.10
90	2	48	100.0%	0.0%	0.10	0.05
30	3	3	100.0%	0.0%	0.33	-0.06
45	3	3	100.0%	0.0%	0.33	-0.06
60	3	11	100.0%	0.0%	0.36	0.13
75	3	21	100.0%	0.0%	0.38	0.21
90	3	27	100.0%	0.0%	0.22	0.03

The entire file can be accessed here: Win Expectancy Chart 2013-14