Un-regressed Win Expectancy by Gamestate
This chart is from the perspective of the home team, constructed from 2013 and 2014 game data. There is no control for team ability, and please be aware of small sample sizes in certain gamestates (depicted by “Games” column).
| Minute | Gamestate | Games | WinPct | TiePct | GD | xGD |
| 15 | -2 | 4 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 1.00 | 0.57 |
| 30 | -2 | 11 | 0.0% | 18.2% | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| 45 | -2 | 17 | 0.0% | 11.8% | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| 60 | -2 | 21 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 0.43 | 0.51 |
| 75 | -2 | 18 | 0.0% | 11.1% | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| 90 | -2 | 17 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.18 | 0.12 |
| 15 | -1 | 46 | 30.4% | 17.4% | 0.52 | 0.60 |
| 30 | -1 | 68 | 27.9% | 23.5% | 0.59 | 0.60 |
| 45 | -1 | 81 | 17.3% | 34.6% | 0.54 | 0.48 |
| 60 | -1 | 82 | 11.0% | 29.3% | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| 75 | -1 | 81 | 3.7% | 27.2% | 0.14 | 0.22 |
| 90 | -1 | 71 | 1.4% | 12.7% | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| 15 | 0 | 312 | 45.5% | 31.7% | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| 30 | 0 | 246 | 45.1% | 32.5% | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| 45 | 0 | 194 | 44.8% | 34.5% | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| 60 | 0 | 141 | 36.9% | 43.3% | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| 75 | 0 | 135 | 31.1% | 54.1% | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| 90 | 0 | 124 | 9.7% | 83.1% | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| 15 | 1 | 67 | 77.6% | 13.4% | 0.43 | 0.10 |
| 30 | 1 | 86 | 72.1% | 20.9% | 0.21 | 0.09 |
| 45 | 1 | 106 | 74.5% | 17.9% | 0.27 | 0.08 |
| 60 | 1 | 128 | 77.3% | 18.8% | 0.19 | 0.05 |
| 75 | 1 | 120 | 80.8% | 15.8% | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| 90 | 1 | 119 | 95.0% | 5.0% | 0.08 | -0.02 |
| 15 | 2 | 6 | 83.3% | 16.7% | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| 30 | 2 | 21 | 85.7% | 9.5% | 0.24 | -0.13 |
| 45 | 2 | 29 | 89.7% | 6.9% | 0.00 | -0.04 |
| 60 | 2 | 42 | 90.5% | 7.1% | -0.19 | -0.15 |
| 75 | 2 | 47 | 95.7% | 4.3% | 0.04 | -0.10 |
| 90 | 2 | 48 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| 30 | 3 | 3 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.33 | -0.06 |
| 45 | 3 | 3 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.33 | -0.06 |
| 60 | 3 | 11 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.36 | 0.13 |
| 75 | 3 | 21 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.38 | 0.21 |
| 90 | 3 | 27 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.22 | 0.03 |
The entire file can be accessed here: Win Expectancy Chart 2013-14
American Soccer Analysis 