Win Expectancy

Un-regressed Win Expectancy by Gamestate

This chart is from the perspective of the home team, constructed from 2013 and 2014 game data. There is no control for team ability, and please be aware of small sample sizes in certain gamestates (depicted by “Games” column).

Minute Gamestate Games WinPct TiePct GD xGD
15 -2 4 0.0% 25.0% 1.00 0.57
30 -2 11 0.0% 18.2% 0.00 0.35
45 -2 17 0.0% 11.8% 0.00 0.25
60 -2 21 0.0% 28.6% 0.43 0.51
75 -2 18 0.0% 11.1% 0.00 0.36
90 -2 17 0.0% 0.0% -0.18 0.12
15 -1 46 30.4% 17.4% 0.52 0.60
30 -1 68 27.9% 23.5% 0.59 0.60
45 -1 81 17.3% 34.6% 0.54 0.48
60 -1 82 11.0% 29.3% 0.29 0.33
75 -1 81 3.7% 27.2% 0.14 0.22
90 -1 71 1.4% 12.7% 0.14 0.13
15 0 312 45.5% 31.7% 0.41 0.35
30 0 246 45.1% 32.5% 0.41 0.31
45 0 194 44.8% 34.5% 0.35 0.28
60 0 141 36.9% 43.3% 0.26 0.20
75 0 135 31.1% 54.1% 0.20 0.10
90 0 124 9.7% 83.1% 0.02 0.05
15 1 67 77.6% 13.4% 0.43 0.10
30 1 86 72.1% 20.9% 0.21 0.09
45 1 106 74.5% 17.9% 0.27 0.08
60 1 128 77.3% 18.8% 0.19 0.05
75 1 120 80.8% 15.8% 0.05 0.01
90 1 119 95.0% 5.0% 0.08 -0.02
15 2 6 83.3% 16.7% 0.33 0.27
30 2 21 85.7% 9.5% 0.24 -0.13
45 2 29 89.7% 6.9% 0.00 -0.04
60 2 42 90.5% 7.1% -0.19 -0.15
75 2 47 95.7% 4.3% 0.04 -0.10
90 2 48 100.0% 0.0% 0.10 0.05
30 3 3 100.0% 0.0% 0.33 -0.06
45 3 3 100.0% 0.0% 0.33 -0.06
60 3 11 100.0% 0.0% 0.36 0.13
75 3 21 100.0% 0.0% 0.38 0.21
90 3 27 100.0% 0.0% 0.22 0.03

The entire file can be accessed here: Win Expectancy Chart 2013-14

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