Where we started
| Team | Cup Semis | Cup Finals | Cup Champs |
| SKC | 66.4% | 42.1% | 30.2% |
| NYRB | 59.9% | 27.6% | 15.9% |
| LA | 53.6% | 31.3% | 14.8% |
| POR | 63.9% | 30.7% | 14.5% |
| RSL | 46.4% | 25.9% | 11.2% |
| NE | 33.6% | 15.7% | 4.8% |
| HOU | 29.0% | 10.8% | 3.1% |
| COL | 19.9% | 7.6% | 3.0% |
| SEA | 16.2% | 4.4% | 1.5% |
| MTL | 11.1% | 3.7% | 0.9% |
MLS Cup Final
Our model had projected SKC to beat RSL in the final with 72-percent probability.
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