Expected Goals 1.0

Scoring ZonesI first introduced our shot location data here, and now it will be available every week! I broke the field down into six scoring zones (shown to the right), and I tallied shot-taking data from these zones. I will post updated league rates on this page in addition to luck charts. PK attempts are included in zone 2, but own goals have been left out.

I have a hunch that most teams’ finishing rates will tend to regress at least partway toward to the league’s average finishing rate within each zone, especially the finishing rates against. Thus the difference between goals and expected goals may imply some impending regression in the points table for some teams.

The Distribution columns (Distr) indicate the percentage of the particular events that come from the zone in question. For example, 54.9% of all goals are scored from zone 2 while only 30.7% of the attempts are taken from zone 2. It’s an efficient zone, though probably not quite as efficient if I were to remove PKs.

League Data (2013)

 Locations   Goals   GoalDistr   SOGDistr   OffDistr   BlksDistr   AttDistr   Finish% 
One 129 15.7% 7.4% 4.6% 2.4% 5.0% 31.1%
Two 451 54.9% 36.8% 31.5% 20.7% 30.7% 17.7%
Three 100 12.2% 18.4% 15.7% 17.1% 16.9% 7.1%
Four 85 10.4% 17.5% 17.2% 25.5% 19.2% 5.3%
Five 51 6.2% 18.2% 28.8% 33.5% 26.4% 2.3%
Six 5 0.6% 1.8% 2.1% 0.9% 1.7% 3.5%

If we regress each team’s finishing rates (for and against) back to league averages, we get the following table for goal differential (GD) versus expected goal differential (xGD). I have also included the components of GD and xGD. 

Luck” Table

Team GF GA GD xGF xGA xGD Luck
LA 52 38 14 50.6 31.2 19.4 -5.4
SKC 45 30 15 48.1 29.8 18.3 -3.3
SJ 34 42 -8 49.3 42.5 6.8 -14.8
COL 43 38 5 45.1 39.5 5.7 -0.7
PHI 42 43 -1 48.2 42.8 5.5 -6.5
NYRB 56 39 17 46.3 41.0 5.3 11.7
HOU 40 39 1 49.6 44.3 5.3 -4.3
POR 53 33 20 42.8 40.1 2.7 17.3
SEA 39 42 -3 44.3 42.8 1.5 -4.5
FCD 46 49 -3 44.1 43.3 0.8 -3.8
CHI 46 49 -3 47.5 49.4 -1.9 -1.1
CLB 41 46 -5 42.6 44.7 -2.1 -2.9
NE 48 36 12 38.3 41.1 -2.8 14.8
RSL 56 41 15 42.0 46.1 -4.1 19.1
MTL 50 48 2 41.2 46.5 -5.4 7.4
VAN 53 41 12 40.3 47.2 -6.9 18.9
TOR 28 46 -18 34.3 46.3 -12.0 -6.0
DCU 21 55 -34 35.4 47.4 -12.0 -22.0
CHV 28 66 -38 31.0 55.0 -24.0 -14.0

15 thoughts on “Expected Goals 1.0

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    • This data leaves out own goals on the assumption that they just cloud the predictive value of the data. Vancouver scored four own goals on itself on the dates of 3/30, 4/20 (he was probably high), 4/27 and 6/1. Vancouver never received an own goal gift from its opponents.

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