Top 50 Total Shots Created: MLS Week 13

I’ve been terrible with trying to keep up with this quantitative metric, but I figured it wouldn’t hurt to throw out an updated version in a vain attempt to try to play catch up with the status quo, being that the league is crawling towards the World Cup break.

Really, the point of this exercise is to try and capture how often players are creating shots–not just for themselves, but for teammates. It’s still pretty simplistic, and by no means the definitive answer to who the most valuable attackers are, but it’s a start in moving away from basing value judgements on goal totals.

To be as clear as possible this is not a metric that measures quality or success of the shot. It’s purely about opportunities to score. Either by way of putting mates* in position to score through passes that lead to shots–key passes–or to create a shot by himself–assisted or not–are the ways I count shots created.

*Editor loves word choice.

One thing I did do to include the best available and least luck-influenced player was to set a threshold of 700 minutes played. That limit was arbitrary and selected merely based upon the results of compiling the list. For that reason, and no other, you won’t see individuals such as Michael Bradley, Gilberto, Brad Davis, Joao Plata, Marco Di Vaio and Kekuta Manneh on this list even though their shot creation rates merited a position in the top 50. I am very high on both Plata and Manneh, and I would love to see both surpass the 600-minute mark and really fly beyond 2,000 minutes this season so we can see what their stable versions look like.

50-33:  The Above Average

Rank Name Club Position Minutes Key Passes Assists Shots ShC ShC/90
50 Blas Perez Dallas FWD 899 6 2 24 32 3.20
49 Nick DeLeon DC MF 1026 12 2 23 37 3.25
48 Vincent Nogueira Philadelphia MF 1348 17 2 30 49 3.27
47 Juninho LA MF 962 9 3 23 35 3.27
46 Benny Feilhaber KC MF 1260 26 3 17 46 3.29
45 Erick Torres Chivas FWD 1186 8 1 37 46 3.49
44 Jack McInernery Montreal FWD 844 11 1 21 33 3.52
43 Baggio Husidić LA MF 761 13 1 16 30 3.55
42 Dillion Powers Colorado MF 825 21 3 9 33 3.60
41 Lamar Neagle Seattle MF 987 10 2 28 40 3.65
40 Teal Bunbury NE FWD 1170 15 3 30 48 3.69
39 Felipe Martins Montreal MF 996 15 2 24 41 3.70
38 Jairo Arrieta Columbus FWD 818 9 0 25 34 3.74
37 Max Urruti Portland FWD 744 5 0 26 31 3.75
36 Justin Mapp Montreal MF 949 17 4 19 40 3.79
35 Travis Ishizaki LA MF 735 20 1 10 31 3.80
34 Andrew Wenger Philadelphia FWD 1012 11 1 31 43 3.82
33 Diego Fagundez NE MF 1086 8 2 37 47 3.90

I’ll admit there is quite a bit of disparity between Diego Fagundez (#33) and Nick DeLeon (#49). This group does however hold a few names seems that, to my mind, seem to fit together. Blas Perez (#50), Erick Torres (#45), Jack McInerney (#44) and Andrew Wenger (#34) all are viewed a bit differently in terms of success, but, again, this isn’t about results-based productivity so much as process-based productivity. We’re merely looking at how much they’re involved in creating goal scoring chances, regardless of the quality of those chances or where they are located. In that context it makes more sense.

The lone surprise for me in this tier is Justin Mapp. I would have assumed he’d be much higher on this list being that he’s been on the few bright spots for Montreal a long with JackMac.

 

32-10:  The Good.

Rank Name Club Position Minutes Key Passes Assists Shots ShC ShC/90
32 Chris Wondolowski San Jose FWD 810 6 0 30 36 4.00
31 Obafemi Martins Seattle FWD 1246 19 6 31 56 4.04
30 Michel Dallas MF 740 14 2 18 34 4.14
29 Lee Nguyen NE MF 1032 24 0 24 48 4.19
28 B. Wright-Phillips NYRB FWD 1051 8 0 41 49 4.20
27 Edson Buddle Colorado FWD 707 10 1 22 33 4.20
26 Shea Salinas San Jose MF 916 32 4 7 43 4.22
25 Sabastian Fernandez Vancouver FWD 654 10 0 21 31 4.27
24 Will Bruin Houston FWD 1221 20 1 37 58 4.28
23 Graham Zusi KC FWD 794 24 3 11 38 4.31
22 Alvaro Saborio Real Salt Lake FWD 869 5 2 35 42 4.35
21 Leonardo Fernandez Philadelphia FWD 701 13 1 20 34 4.37
20 Giles Barnes Houston FWD 1335 12 2 51 65 4.38
19 Gaston Fernandez Portland FWD 757 19 0 18 37 4.40
18 Mike Magee Chicago FWD 714 9 2 24 35 4.41
17 Harry Shipp Chicago FWD 894 23 4 17 44 4.43
16 Marco Pappa Seattle MF 751 12 1 24 37 4.43
15 Mauro Diaz Dallas MF 646 16 2 14 32 4.46
14 Bernando Anor Columbus MF 718 11 0 25 36 4.51
13 Cristian Maidana Philadelphia MF 871 23 2 20 45 4.65
12 Quincy Amarikwa Chicago FWD 880 15 4 28 47 4.81
11 Dom Dwyer KC FWD 1050 7 0 50 57 4.89
10 Deshorn Brown Colorado FWD 902 6 0 43 49 4.89

Two other names that are notable here. Edson Buddle (#27)–whom everyone thought was done two years ago when he was traded to Colorado–and Marco Pappa (#16), who was kind of a last minute signing before the start of the season, and who was a serious question mark considering his lack of playing time in the Netherlands.  Now both of these individuals that were stamped as likely non-essentials are two of most involved in the creation of their clubs attack. Lee Nguyen (29) coming in higher than Obafemi Martins (31) makes me laugh, simply because Martins is second in the league in assists and most people still hold that to being the truest or, perhaps, the most obvious sign of team goal contributions. Yet Nguyen has been a catalyst for New England and is simply their most valuable player when it comes to finding the ability to create chances. This is the meat and potatoes of the list.

9-4: The Elite.

Rank Name Club Position Minutes Key Passes Assists Shots ShC ShC/90
9 Javier Morales Real Salt Lake MF 1154 41 5 21 67 5.23
8 Fabian Espindola DC FWD 1086 30 4 30 64 5.30
7 Diego Valeri Portland MF 1117 28 5 37 70 5.64
6 Landon Donovan LA MF 802 24 2 25 51 5.72
5 Thierry Henry NYRB FWD 1170 23 4 49 76 5.85
4 Federico Higuain Columbus FWD 1080 39 5 27 71 5.92

So there that is. There shouldn’t be any argument here with any of these names. Fabian Espindola (#8) is the sole reason DC even has a shot at the playoffs. He is going to get every opportunity to be ‘the man’ in black and red. Landon Donovan (#6) despite his uncanny snubbery from the US National Team is still clearly a major factor for the Galaxy and their attack. Sticking with the theme of decline in skills, Thierry Henry (#5) is still one of the greatest to ever play in MLS.

Oh, and I’m just biding my time for Higuian to get past this “slump” and jet into the MVP Candidate category… because that’s simply where he belongs. More on that down the road.

3-1:  The MVP Candidates.

Rank Name Club Position Minutes Key Passes Assists Shots ShC ShC/90
3 Robbie Keane LA FWD 990 19 2 45 66 6.00
2 Clint Dempsey Seattle MF 751 14 2 43 59 7.07
1 Pedro Morales Whitecaps MF 821 31 4 38 73 8.00

Clint Dempsey (#2) has had the kind of year that is simply bananas. It’s been so crazy that it’s somehow eclipsed the Pedro Morales (#1) show that is going on just a few short hours north of him. Sure, these guys take penalty kicks, but that’s only a small fraction of their shots generated. If these two take this same show into the later stages of the season I can’t think there would be much reason to consider anyone else for MVP.

Oh, I guess you could probably throw Robbie Keane‘s (#3) name in that list, too. People forget about ol’ faithful, but even without his P.I.C. (read: ‘Partner in Crime’ for those that aren’t as hip as I am) for a game or two here and there, he’s still been incredible. Currently he ranks third in individual expected goals, proving that he also finds dangerous places to take his shots and doesn’t hesitate to pull the trigger. Oh, and despite the angry looks and words AND finger wags, he gets his teammates those same opportunities.

And here’s the Excel File for the top 50.

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Season Preview: Seattle Sounders

The Sounders history comes at you as if you had just yelled “come at me, bro!” and meant it. The Sounders didn’t just come out of the gate in 2009, they came out of the gate like they had just stolen a car, killed a hooker in GTA, and they weren’t interested in stopping until they got those five stars and summoned multiple helicopters. The funny thing is that with all this “success,” they’ve never won a single piece of MLS-specific hardware. Yes, they’ve earned 3 U.S. Open Cup trophies and fell just short on penalties to Sporting KC for a fourth, and the club has tallied the 2nd-most total points in MLS since its inception (266 total points, 53 points per season). But the Sounders have inevitably faltered when the time has come to step up and win the trophy. Adrian Hanauer and Co. are set on changing that in 2014.

2013 Finish: 15-12-7, 52 points; 42 GF, 42 GA. Fourth place in Western Conference. Lost in MLS Cup Conference Semi-Finals.

SoundersXI

Transactions

Players In Players Out
GK Stefan Frei Trade (Toronto) GK Michael Gspurning Option Declined
F Tristan Bowen Trade (Chivas) D Marc Burch Option Declined
D Chad Marshall Trade (Chivas) M Blair Gavin Option Declined
F Kenny Cooper Trade (Dallas) F Steve Zakuani Option Declined
F Corey Hertzog Re-Entry Stage 2 M Mauro Rosales Trade (Chivas)
M Aaron Kovar Home Grown Player M Adam Moffatt Trade (Dallas)
F Sean Okoli Home Grown Player F Eddie Johnson Trade (DC United)
F Chad Barrett Re-Entry Stage 2 D Jhon Kennedy Hurtado Trade (Chicago)
D Jalil Anibaba Trade (Chicago) D Patrick Ianni Trade (Chicago)
M Marco Pappa Allocation F Fredy Montero Transfer (Sporting CP)
F Will Bates Waived
D Jimmy Ockford Loaned (NY Cosmos)
F Eriq Zavaleta Loaned (Chivas)
M Alex Caskey Traded (DC United)

Roster churn: Seattle returns 58.9% of its minutes played from 2013 (15th most in MLS and 7th most in the Western Conference)

2014 Preview

SEA-ROSNow, after an extremely disappointing finish in 2013 to not just the season but the playoffs, SEAINFOthe Sounders have rebuilt their squad with dynamic talent that specifically caters to their team chemistry—and, side note, they may be just as dynamic off the pitch as on it. Seattle invested in the team’s spine by finding new keeper Stefan Frei to fill the boots of the departed Michael Gspurning, acquired Chad Marshall from Columbus,  signed critical midfielder Ozzie ‘Honey Badger’ Alonso to a designated player contract, and then traded Adam Moffat for Kenny Cooper. Cooper looks to be inserted in the spare striker role and work with Obafemi Martins in lieu of the wayward Eddie Johnson.

The team has a pretty solid line-up and even includes some interesting youth beyond just that of DeAndre Yedlin. Tristan Bowen, the original home grown player (HGP), joins the attacking front line and should get some looks up top this season. Along with him, the club will be expecting big things from central midfielder Andy Rose. Sean Okoli and Aaron Kovar, who could contribute to the season in their own ways, lead the second coming of Sounders HGP.

Overall, the club wasn’t bad in 2013. However, “not bad” wasn’t on the list of ideal outcomes at the beginning of the season. Seattle limped out of the gate in 2013, and without key pieces in the lineup, the Sounders found that they weren’t generating as many opportunities as their opponents, and the poor results followed suit. It came as little surprised that, without big-money players in the lineup, and with no CCL money available or that four-year bubble money for new teams, the Sounders were just too thin to deal with the weekly roster trimming.

Both of those financial sources that we went dry were also helping to soak up the payroll strains of having Steve Zakuani on the roster. It’s not his fault that problems have continued to occur following that horrible incident, but it left the Rave Green with an extremely tough decision to make this off-season. A decision that forced the club to decline to tender a contract to Zakuani, which ended in the delight of many Portland supporters–as the Timbers swooped in and signed him–and the sobs of Emerald City Supporters.

Before today, we knew the Sounders would be playing a lot of new players this season, and the roster churn continued today with the move of Alex Caskey to DC United. This will be one of the “newest” teams in MLS in some ways, especially when you consider that Clint Dempsey only played nine games for the Sounders last season. The squad is nearing completion with the likelihood that they’ll add a trialist to an important rotation spot. Now that we pretty much know who’s on the squad, the question is how consistent they will be.

As mentioned, Seattle’s numbers from 2013 all look very much mediocre. Those are, of course, averages from an entire season, and this only serves as another reminder that the mountain peaks were high and the valleys were equally low last season. Games against FC Dallas, San Jose and even Real Salt Lake at home were decisive victories by a team that ruled its opponents both on the scoreboard and by the numbers. Then they saw embarrassing losses on the road against those same Real Salt Lake and Dallas teams, as well as against Colorado. Not to mention that Vancouver pretty much won the Cascadia Cup by a landslide at Century Link field in a game that piled on to the fact that the club had gone from Supporters’ Shield favorite to being on the cusp of falling out of the playoffs. The club isn’t as bad as the ratio numbers display—as suggested by our soon-to-be-published xGD 2.0—but it wasn’t the type of season that they want to pin up on Mom’s fridge.

Going forward, with all the pressure the supporters have on Sigi Schmid, this is a season where he may need to find the minimum of an MLS Cup Final appearance to save his job. With an improved back line and a full season of both Martins and Clint Dempsey, along with the addition of a creative player like Marco Pappa coming out of the midfield, the club has all the pieces at their disposal to get to the playoffs rather comfortably. And once they get there, it’s all going to be all about the current health of the squad. The injury bug has not been favorable for the Sounders in the past, but that said, their depth has also improved. The patience has worn thin on the Schmid coaching regime. It’s time for some real hardware.

Crowdsourcing Results

American Soccer Analysis readers seem to think that the Sounders will continue to have success in 2014 . They have projected Seattle to finish 3rd in the Western Conference this season, with 28.1% of voters placing them there, and 63.3% of voters placing them somewhere in the top three. There are only a few doubters, with a very small 6.4% of voters placing them in spots six through nine, out of the playoffs.