Player Acquisition: The Tweeners

There is a thing that constantly steals my interest when it comes Major League Soccer. It’s how teams choose to scout and evaluate talent that is already in the league. One thing that has been made quite clear with the financial constraints is that it is difficult to hold on to those players that hover around the $200,000 salary threshold, and yet aren’t stars or obviously consistent difference makers.

Player makers such as Chris Rolfe, Mauro Rosales and Bobby Convey have found new homes in MLS, either in the few months leading up to this season or since the first kick. The names themselves aren’t specific references of importance, but rather examples of what happens in the off-season concerning players in the aforementioned pay range that are just casualties of cap situations in today’s era.

These players we understand to a degree. They are interesting talents with a fair amount of room for critiquing, whether that be due to personality, problems with injuries or just inconsistent displays of performance from week to week. There are always one or two or even three (in this case) of these players that are available come the off-season.

Two of the three players went to clubs with the ability to take chances.

Chivas USA was obviously getting a steal in adding Rosales. Super Mauro, since being added to the roster, has accrued 17 key passes and 3 assists while producing 12 shots on his own. He leads the club in Total Shots Created.

DC United needed anything to help save their season and jump start their offense. The arrival of Rolfe in return for a bit of allocation money was seemingly a worthwhile risk–and his influence on Ben Olsen’s chances of keeping the head coaching job can probably be debated to some extent. Prior to the trade, Olsen and DC United had only produced 1 point through 3 matches. Since the addition of Rolfe, they’re now rolling at nearly 2 points per match.

Now, I’m not saying that Rolfe is truly responsible for the turn around. That idea would represent lazy analysis. In fact, DC United generated 34 shot attempts to its opponents’ 36 in the first three games, and 108 to 112 since, so it’s not like Rolfe’s presence has indicated a stable improvement yet. Frankly, since MLS week 4, it’s been the Fabian Espindola show at RFK, and that is a completely different discussion.

On to Convey, who didn’t go to a team that had to take on a lot of risk. Instead he went to the defending Supporters’ Shield-winning New York Red Bulls. He has been somewhat of middling attacking influence in his time on the pitch for the Bulls, adding 9 key passes and 2 shots in just under 700 minutes over his initial tenure this season.

WhoScored isn’t exactly impressed. They have graded his performance so far by issuing him a 6.39 rating which is well below their league average rating for a player—which sits near 6.7. Squawka ranks him 16th on the  roster depth chart which mostly follows up that thinking being that WhoScored placed him 15th overall.

These three players represent teams that have taken advantage of a system available to them in an effort to improve their club. What is intriguing to me at this juncture isn’t necessarily the impact they’ve made upon their current club but how their current clubs targeted them as being upgrades and financially worth their investments.

I’m sure that MLS teams have personnel that help front office types make decisions and help discern player talent and ability that make them right for the acquisition. I am familiar enough with certain clubs to be aware of the individuals that are involved in that process, and much of it seems archaic and awkward in method.

Mauro Rosales may have been less of a risk when it comes to Chivas. In fact it was kind of “duh” type moment that perfectly fell in their lap. The other side of the coin is that Rolfe and Convey were both risks, and heavy ones at that considering their price tags (before New York lapped Convey up, that is).

I would certainly concede that all are substantial talents within the US first division. But how they fit the rosters to which they were added to is a bit interesting.

Some could point to Convey’s addition to New York as an attempt to add competition to the left side and some wide play making, Convey has instead shifted to the back line in the form of a full back. Which begs the question, was that the idea before he was added?

I, as well as many, had thought Luis Silva would be taking over the role of central play maker in Washington after the departure of Dwayne De Rosario. After the stumbles by Silva early on, I thought that Rolfe would take over that role, but instead he looks to be pushed out wide with Nick DeLeon, being featured more frequently in the central attacking role. Was this a decision made before acquiring him, and did the club think he could fill that role any better than some of the more natural wide midfielders who have moved clubs since?

Results-based analysis is often unhelpful, and in these cases, don’t truly tell the story we’re seeking in how MLS teams are valuing these types of players. I’m curious if there are any specific statistical values that teams could point to as to why they made this move–and please, I hope it’s more than the assists or goals totals, or the fact that they’re “winners.” For all the talk about transparency in details for the league, it would be nice to see some of the true thought processes involved in analyzing these talents beyond tired cliches. Especially considering that all these clubs they have access to far better gauges and methods than what most of us have at our disposal.

How it Happened: Week Eleven

Another weekend of games, and another weekend of contradictions from teams across the league. I thought I’d write today about the six teams in the three games I watched through the lens of huge differences between those teams. Without any further ado, here’s how it happened last weekend.

Toronto FC 2 – 0 New York Red Bulls

Stat that told the story for Toronto: 6 through balls, 3 key passes from middle third

Toronto and New York are both flawed teams. Toronto doesn’t particularly well with possession in the middle third of the field (especially without Michael Bradley), and they tend to set their defensive line of confrontation dangerously deep in their own half. But there’s one thing they excel at that helps neutralize both of these weaknesses: they attack swiftly and directly through the middle third with through balls to a striker who’s not bad at putting them away, Jermain Defoe. Take a look at that map above: three key passes from TFC midfielders and six more through balls, all coming from the middle third and springing dangerous attacks very quickly. For sake of comparison, New York had exactly zero through balls or key passes from the same part of the field in the match.

Stat that told the story for New York: 4 successful crosses, 34 unsuccessful crosses

If Toronto’s greatest asset is their direct attacking speed through the midfield, it’s one thing that the Red Bulls commonly lack. I already noted that they had no key passes or through balls from the midfield recorded against Toronto, but that number of crosses is fairly absurd as well. I’m not one who believes crossing is a terrible gameplan at all times: Lloyd Sam has maybe been the best Red Bull this year, and they really should’ve scored at least one goal from those 38 crosses on Saturday. But the lack of variety and speed in their attack is stunning for a team as talented as New York. Hopefully this improves when Peguy Luyindula returns and adds some spark to the midfield, but right now New York looks about as flawed as Toronto.

Real Salt Lake 2 – 1 Colorado Rapids

Stat that told the story for RSL: first 50 minutes of the game: 93/110 passing in center of field vs. 61/84 for Colorado

The Rocky Mountain rivalry is always a hotly-contested one, and in years past has been a game with a clash of styles, too. That was less the case in the first half of Saturday’s game: both teams came out with narrow midfields looking to control the center of the field. The Rapids have tried out these tactics this season, but RSL has been using them for years, and to be frank, it showed early in the game. Salt Lake’s diamond midfield (even without Kyle Beckerman) had little trouble passing the ball around Colorado like a church congregation with the offering dish. The lead-up to their first goal was absolutely beautiful to watch, and they created oodles of other chances in staking themselves to a 2-0 lead.

Stat that told the story for Colorado: 5 out of 7 successful crosses, 11 of 16 total crosses, 10 of 16 shots came after going behind 2-0

Pablo Mastroeni was a really good central midfielder in his playing days, and he has a couple of very good ones in his current squad (especially Dillon Powers). But his insistence on lining his team up with 3 or even 4 natural center midfielders on the field has confused me all season. Colorado was one of the surprise stories of the league last year, and a lot of their success was due to a fairly direct style of play. It certainly wasn’t all long balls and crosses a la Stoke City, but they made a lot of good things happen by getting the ball into the box to Edson Buddle and Deshorn Brown. In this one, after falling behind 2-0 in the 50th minute, Colorado reverted a bit to their 2013 ways. They lumped in significantly more crosses, and not coincidentally they had more success getting legitimate chances, shots and goals. I hope the Raps were taking notes on some of what made them successful in the second half.

Seattle Sounders 1 – 0 San Jose Earthquakes

Stat that told the story for Seattle: Obafemi Martins was/is really good

So far this year, Clint Dempsey has (deservedly) gotten a lot of attention for being the best player in the league. Obafemi Martins has gotten less attention for being just about as good. Martins and Dempsey are absolutely the most fearsome attack combination in the league right now, and it’s very much because of how well they play off each other. Dempsey’s success has come very much thanks to Martins’ passing and hold-up ability, while Martins has sacrificed some of his goal-scoring to do the dirty work for Seattle. In this one without Deuce, Oba unleashed the fury with a pretty incredible goal that you’ve probably seen already. He’s been everything you could ask for of a Designated Player this year: making plays each and every game that have helped the Sounders to the top of the league.

Stat that told the story for San Jose: Jean-Baptiste Pierazzi was/is really boring

If Seattle’s DP additions from last season have been the most fearsome duo in the league this season, San Jose’s recent signings have been about as scary as the Odd Couple. Let’s run them down: Yannick Djalo looked super exciting, then got hurt. Andreas Gorlitz didn’t look very exciting, then got hurt. Brandon Barklage, Atiba Harris and Khari Stephenson have all been basically the best any Quakes fan could hope for: extremely average MLS journeymen. But the one guy that I want to mention is the one who’s been most disappointing: Frenchman Jean-Baptiste Pierazzi. I mean no offense to Pierazzi at all, but he came in from French club AC Ajaccio with nearly 180 career appearances in France’s top league and a lot was expected of him. From what I’ve seen of him so far, he’s struggled to fit in with the team as well as the physicality of MLS. He’s hardly been a bad player, but he’s definitely not made the impact you expect of a high-profile addition from a top European league.

 

Agree with my assessments? Think I’m an idiot? Let me know. @MLSAtheist

You say you want a Revolution? Possession with Purpose From a Different Angle

A superb run with five wins and a draw in six games; by most standards that is a compelling argument for consistency.  I agree and their overall Composite Possession with Purpose Index rating continues to climb.

They’ve (New England) climbed from 17th in PWP (week 5) to 7th after week 11; a superb shift of 10 full places in 6 weeks.

So in considering this giant push forward I’d like to take a different approach in how the data points from PWP can be viewed.  

This is new so please bear with me for a minute or two as I set the context.

Below are a number of diagrams referencing my PWP indicators for a few teams; the diagram being used this time is the ‘doughnut’ diagram from Microsoft Powerpoint.

The interesting thing about this diagram is that it allows me to offer up a view on my PWP data points that isn’t relative to the exponential relationship (a line). Instead, it allows me to picture the overall tenor of PWP data points in relationship to themselves as being a part of a ‘whole’; with the ‘whole’ being PWP.

I feel confident I can take this approach since my Expected Wins 2 correlation for my data points is ~.97 (R2) — as near to rock solid as you can get.

Other context points include:  

• The teams used in this analysis are Seattle, New England, Montreal, Portland and last years’ Supporters Shield winner (New York) plus last years bottom dweller (DC United)
• Reminder in case my explanation was a bit wordy above – the percentages indicated in the doughnut are not the percentages of those activities relative to the game; they are the percentage of those activities relative to each other with 100% being all those activities added together.
• Source – as usual the MLS Chalkboard and the MLS Statistics Sheets
• Gold Stars on the diagrams are intended to show you where differences occur.
• The team name on the outside of the doughnut is the outer ring of data and the team name on the inside of the doughnut is the inner ring of data.

To begin…

PWP Doughnut Diagram Week 11 NER v MIFC

The volume of Final Third passes successfully completed by New England (29%) is 3% points higher than Montreal (26%).  Note also that Montreal has a greater percentage of PWP outside the Final Third (30%) than New England (28%). Both of these indicate to me that New England is more focused on penetrating and creating than Montreal.

For the future I will check into these three areas when looking to see if a ‘direct attacking approach’ can be better differentiated from a ‘ground-based’ (short passing scheme) approach.

The actual volume of penetration is higher for New England as well (11%) versus (7%). And like my regular PWP analysis the data here also supports the fact that teams who are more patient in creating shots taken (6% for NER versus 11% for MIFC) end up with more goals scored.

I did ask Matthias Kullowatz about the specific shot data for New England and Montreal; ~60% of Montreal’s shots on target have come outside the prime scoring zones 1 & 2 while ~68% of the Revolution shots on target have also come outside of zones 1 & 2.  So what’s different?

I think it’s down to time and space again; though it could be the Revolution have better strikers – but when you see the DC United doughnut diagram a bit later I think it’s back to time and space; and with fewer shots taken and more patience in the final third that seems reasonable to me.

Now for a contrast that might be better at explaining individual mistakes and bad fortune more than a bad ‘style/system’…

PWP Doughnut Diagram Week 11 SSFC v PTFC

Notice no ‘gold stars’; why? Because there really isn’t that much difference between how these two teams execute the six steps of PWP.

What separates these two teams in the league table are individual mental mistakes in defense – Portland sit on ten points while Seattle have 25. Through the course of this year the Timbers have dropped 7 points due to red cards and penalties – they did both against Columbus Saturday night!

In considering the ‘sameness’ of the data I expect as time passes an output similar to this could highlight ‘individual mistakes’ and perhaps ‘good/bad luck’ when it comes to rebounds and deflections – again recall Saturday night when Futty Danso deflected a shot and notched an ‘own-goal’

All told things went pretty well for Columbus, a red card by their opponent, a foul in the penalty box by their opponent for a PK and a deflected own-goal by their opponent. If I were a Columbus fan I’d be pretty pissed they didn’t win – bad luck for the Crew!

However viewed I’ll revisit this diagram later when the Cascadia Cup battle heats up.

So here’s the doughnut view of New York compared to DC United last year and then a bit further down how they look compared to each other this year.

PWP Doughnut Diagram NYRB v DCU 2013

First off – let’s not forget Ben Olsen was not fired and perhaps this doughnut diagram can also help explain why given the overall poor performance in results last year for DC United.

Notice that the team does exceedingly well in comparison to New York with respect to Passing, penetration and creation; they actually exceed New York in the first two categories and only fall off when it comes to goals scored (7% for DC United versus 15% for New York).

So I’d offer that the system Ben Olsen ran last year worked – what he lacked was a pair of good strikers.  And if you recall the Montreal doughnut earlier the outputs from DC United do not mirror those of the Impact!

They added Espindola and Johnson and shored up their defense a bit; that also included adding Amos Magee to the staff.  Remember him as the Defensive Coordinator for Portland last year (I think – others can confirm or deny that I’m sure)

Bottom line here – the system didn’t change and the Head Coach didn’t change and I’d offer that was appropriate…  now for the same diagram this year:

PWP Doughnut Diagram Week 11 NYRB v DCU 2014

In closing:

Note the increase for DC United in the final category – goals scored versus shots on goal – pretty compelling information to reinforce that the system used last year is the same system used this year and the difference – major difference – is the addition of two quality strikers.

I’m just in the learning stages on how this new doughnut diagram will take shape – I’m pretty sure it will have at least one hole in it – I’m hopeful there aren’t a lot more.

Some changes afoot with OPTA and MLS – I see OPTA incorporated the Final Third Passing Accuracy suggestion – just need to find out if crosses are included in that metric???

As for the new MLS Chalkboard – I’m not sure how that will work if the ‘numbers’ of activities are not available to count when it comes to defensive activities and ‘touches’ for players…

And yes, the old Chalkboard still appears to exist given a separate link within previous articles but it’s unclear if this change will be a permanent change for next year – or even the World Cup for that matter…

As for This Week in PWP; if you saw my tweets yesterday you know the top Attacking and Defending PWP teams of the week; New England in attack and Toronto in Defense with the Reds taking the Composite PWP Index top spot for Week 11.  

Sporting KC, along with LA Galaxy remain atop the Composite PWP through Week 11 while the Revolution moved to 7th and Columbus dropped to 4th as Real Salt Lake are now in a comfortable position of 3rd best overall.

Finally, this view also gives you and idea of what percentage each team gleans from each of the PWP Six Steps data points in the calculation for the overall Index number.

Best, Chris

How it Happened: Week Nine

Welcome to my few-days-old review of the weekend in MLS, where I recap three games that I watched in their entirety (well, usually) by picking a stat or Opta image that tells the story of the game for each team. This week I fell short of my usual three games, and I apologize to the legions of Red Bulls and FC Dallas fans who will no doubt be disappointed to read the following paragraph.

FC Dallas 0 – 1 New York Red Bulls

Stat that told the story for both teams: 26 minutes for which I was able to watch this game

This game was hideous. Not necessarily soccer wise: Thierry Henry will be fun to watch when he’s pushing a walker around on opposing half, and this was a very competitive match, from what I saw. But I couldn’t even make it past 26 minutes of this game before I had to give up and turn it off. Between Je-Vaughn Watson’s karate kick of Tim Cahill, the referee’s less-than-stellar control of the game, and players, fans and coaches alike going insane showing their indignation at every whistle, it was absolutely painful.

Sporting Kansas City 2 – 0 Columbus Crew

Stat that told the story for SKC: the ability to switch the ball in one pass

First, an aside: re-capping the national TV game from NBCSN is next to impossible, but for a good reason. Kyle Martino on the broadcast team does such a fantastic job breaking down the tactics of the match, that it’s incredibly difficult for me to pick out anything that hasn’t been said yet. So I’m going to just roll with something he mentioned, and that Matthew Doyle also mentioned in his weekly column. One of the major differences between KC and Columbus is Matt Besler’s ability to switch the field of play with one ball. It’s an ability that led straight to the first goal (buildup pictured above according to Opta), and it’s one that USMNT fans have to hope pays off in the World Cup. Columbus, for all their admirable qualities, don’t really have a player with the quality to hit that ball. Federico Higuain can do it, and Wil Trapp will from time to time, but with SKC if it isn’t Besler switching fields, it’s Graham Zusi or Benny Feilhaber or Seth Sinovic. All in all, they’re just a more complete team at the moment.

Stat that told the story for Columbus: Jairo Arrieta’s actions

There’s one other really big difference between the Crew and Sporting KC that spells out why Columbus doesn’t measure up, at least not yet. Jairo Arrieta plays as a lone striker for Columbus. This probably isn’t the greatest role for him, because he’s at his best when combining with others. Sometimes this works well with him and Higuain, but sometimes (like Sunday), he ends up isolated and completely ineffective. Seriously, his action that was closest to the goal against SKC was still about 30 yards away from the endline. The Crew did have some solid moves, generally involving Josh Williams overlapping and sending in a dangerous cross, but the lack of a quality striker really did Columbus in.

Chivas USA 1 – 4 Houston Dynamo

Stat that told the story for Houston: interchanging midfield in the new formation

I’m gonna play a little trivia game here and see if you can guess which heat map belongs to which midfielder from Sunday’s game for Houston. The telecast called Dom Kinnear’s formation a 4-3-3, but it looked a whole lot like a 4-1-4-1 to me, taken straight out of Jay Heaps’ playbook from last season. I really liked the move: the Dynamo have multiple midfielders who can tuck in or pose a threat out wide, and Giles Barnes and Will Bruin just haven’t worked well together up top. So, might as well drop Barnes into the midfield. It was only Chivas, but the early returns were pretty tough to argue with: the midfield dominated every facet of the game from winning balls to creating chances. We’ll see if the Dynamo stick to the formation, but I liked the innovation from Kinnear. By the way, the answer from top left to bottom right: Davis, Garcia, Driver, Barnes, Carrasco.

Stat that told the story for Chivas: first half midfield struggles: 16/19 recoveries/interceptions in their own half

I’ve written about Chivas a few times in recent weeks, focusing mostly on the midfield. Against the LA Galaxy, they got run over and never stood a chance. Against San Jose, they held their own and really made it a game (seeing the Quakes’ struggles against Vancouver this weekend makes that seem like less of an accomplishment). Against the Dynamo on Sunday, it was back to getting run over. The five midfielders put together a total of 19 recoveries + interceptions in the first half, but 16 of them were in their own half and the other three were miles from the attacking goal. Basically, the Goats couldn’t make up any ground and just got pushed around by the more talented Houston midfield. On the bright side: the second half started better, until another goalkeeper red card finished off any Chivas hopes at a comeback.

Dynamo Dynamic in Attack and Bulls Bullish on Defense – Week 9 Ends in MLS

Taking a team to L.A. and winning 4-1 sounds incredible until you offer up the caveat that it wasn’t against the Galaxy.

The doormat this year seems to be shining earlier than last. The Houston Dynamo have dominated in dynamic fashion; wow – good on you Giles Barnes…

So how exactly did that powerful attack look compared to other four-goal outbursts this year – was it really that special?

In all the four-goal games this year, here’s a quick breakdown on which teams accomplished that and then who’s been tops in their Possession with Purpose and Expected Wins statistics for those games:

1. DC United vs FC Dallas
2. Sporting KC vs Montreal Impact
3. Seattle Sounders vs Colorado Rapids
4. Seattle Sounders vs Portland Timbers
5. New York Red Bulls vs Houston Dynamo
6. Houston Dynamo vs Chivas USA
7. Houston Dynamo vs New England Revolution
8. Portland Timbers vs Seattle Sounders
9. Vancouver Whitecaps vs New York Red Bulls

Tops in overall possession in those high scoring affairs was DC United at 67.04%. Tops in passing accuracy across the entire pitch was, again, DC United at 84.17%.

Tops in penetration percentage based upon passes completed in the final third vs. across the entire pitch was Houston vs. New England at 28.94%.

Tops in percentage of successful passes within the final third was Vancouver at 74.55%. Tops in shots taken compared to passes completed in the final third was Houston vs. Chivas USA at 39.13%.

Tops in shots on goal compared to shots taken was Vancouver at 71.43%; and finally… tops in goals scored vs. shots on goal was FC Dallas at 100% versus Houston.

So while Houston did well this weekend, and got their second four-goal game, it wasn’t dominating compared to others – sorry Houston. It was three points (which is the target) but it wasn’t really that special when viewing who you played against… more later on just how weak Chivas are in Possession with Purpose.

However viewed, Houston still had the best attacking outcome this week. So here’s my PWP Attacking Player of the Week… Giles Barnes.

PWP Attacking Player of the Week 10

Moving on to the Defensive side of the pitch – FC Dallas saw red this past weekend and it wasn’t just their kit, the Red Bulls kit or Dax McCarty’s hair – it was Watson (elementary my dear) who got red.  

Things don’t get better for Dallas either – they travel to Seattle for a midweek clash this Wednesday and then must fly down to San Jose for another on Saturday… wow.   Might we see Dallas drop three in a row?  I’m not sure and if you want to know my MLS picks for this week check here.

Anyhow, I digress – the PWP Defending Player of Week 9 is Jamison Olave…

PWP Defending Player of the Week 10

So was that a worthy three points for New York and should it have been expected?  I’m not sure and here’s some information to consider:

Below is a list of games, this year, where the first team listed got a Red Card:

1. DC United v FC Dallas
2. Columbus Crew v DC United
3. Columbus Crew v Sporting KC
4. Sporting KC v Columbus Crew
5. Sporting KC v New England Revolution
6. Sporting KC v Real Salt Lake
7. FC Dallas v Chivas USA
8. FC Dallas v DC United
9. FC Dallas v New York Red Bulls
10. FC Dallas v Portland Timbers
11. New York Red Bulls v Philadelphia Union
12. Houston Dynamo v FC Dallas
13. Houston Dynamo v Philadelphia Union
14. Chivas USA v Houston Dynamo
15. Chivas USA v San Jose Earthquakes
16. Chivas USA v Seattle Sounders
17. Chivas USA v Vancouver Whitecaps
18. Portland Timbers v Colorado Rapids
19. Portland Timbers v FC Dallas
20. Vancouver Whitecaps v Colorado Rapids
21. Colorado Rapids v Portland Timbers
22. Colorado Rapids v Sporting KC
23. Montreal Impact v Philadelphia Union
24. Chicago Fire v New England Revolution
25. Chicago Fire v Portland Timbers
26. San Jose Earthquakes v Colorado Rapids
27. Seattle Sounders v Columbus Crew

Twenty seven in all and only Colorado, New York, FC Dallas twice, Sporting KC and DC United won games yielding just a 22% chance of winning when seeing Red.

FC Dallas and Chivas USA lead MLS having received Red Cards in four games.  But here’s where the more later comes in for Chivas – check this out.

FC Dallas (when short handed) have an Attacking PWP Index = 2.3976.  Their Defending PWP Index = 2.3914 and their Composite PWP Index = .1472.

By contrast, the Goats PWP Indices (at full strength this year) for Attacking = 2.1685; for Defending = 2.5446 and for Composite PWP = -.3760.  If I were a Chivas USA supporter that is a pretty depressing statistical output – FC Dallas, short-handed, are more productive in Attack and more effective in Defense than a full-strength Chivas… wow!

In circling back to my question on whether or not it should have been expected that New York would win?   Perhaps now, seeing how effective FC Dallas is, even when short-handed, it wasn’t quite the cake-walk one would expect.  Key for Dallas these next 7 days will be the health of Diaz and the discipline to minimize Red Cards…

In closing…

After nine full weeks of MLS here’s how things stand with my Composite PWP Index along with a few quick thoughts plus the Top 3 in Attacking and Top 3 in Defending.

PWP Cumulative Composite Index through Week 10

LA Galaxy remain atop the table even with their 1-nil loss in Colorado – if Robbie Keane hits that PK, LA doesn’t drop one point.  As for Columbus they drop down to 3rd with Sporting KC pushing up to spot #2.

Seattle, FC Dallas, Colorado and Columbus still stay in the top 6 while RSL continues to move forward – inching one space higher into 7th with New York and New England swapping places.

Note DC United dropped a few places and the bandwidth between the Revolution, United, Union, Whitecaps, and Portland got a bit tighter while Houston pushed forward past both Montreal and Chicago after thrashing Chivas.

Settling into last is Chivas, by a large margin, while the Fire and Impact hover on the low end as well…

Did a change in Managers (Head Coaches) really make a difference when looking at the End State? I’m not sure; for now it doesn’t appear that either Klopas or Yallop have really changed things up when viewing the bottom line…

The top three teams in overall Attacking PWP (after 9 full weeks) are FC Dallas, Seattle Sounders, and Columbus Crew – can their approaches in possession continue to keep them there?

The top three teams in overall Defending PWP are Sporting KC, LA Galaxy and New England Revolution – some might offer elsewhere that it is surprising to see the Revolution somewhat higher in the table compared to others; is that surprising?

I don’t think so… they have shown pedigree in defending for over a year now and with an improved attack it only stands to reason that their overall position finds them where they are…

Finally, have you made adjustments in your Fantasy teams yet?

If not and you are looking for a consistent (team back-four) you may want to add the Revolution to your list while spending a bit of change in leveraging Lloyd Sam from New York (cheap and cheerful) or latching on to Jaoa Plata if you haven’t already…

Best, Chris

How It Happened: Week Eight

The scorelines of the three games I caught this weekend had a very “binary solo” feel to them: 1-0, 1-1, 1-0. There were impressive performances from young wingers, outstanding goalkeeping, and irresponsible defending – and that was just in these three games. Here’s how it happened for six teams last weekend.

Columbus Crew 1 – 1 New York Red Bulls

Stat that told the story for New York: 5 terrific chances in the first 10 minutes

This was certainly the premier game I tuned into this weekend: two teams fighting to stay near the top of the Eastern Conference and who play entertaining soccer. Both teams played pretty well, too, for the most part – a notable exception was the first ten minutes when Red Bulls were terrific and Columbus was sleepwalking. NYRB would look back on these first ten minutes with great angst, as great saves by Steve Clark and near misses by Eric Alexander and Thierry Henry made them all go for naught. New York would eventually get their goal through the red-hot Bradley Wright-Phillips, but also gave up their share of great chances that required big saves from Luis Robles. All in all, this was probably a game where both teams left fairly content with the result and how they played.

Stat that told the story for Columbus: 7 first time crosses from wide players

I went over the game from both team’s perspective above, so I’m going to use this space to talk a little general soccer strategy. Each and every game I ever watch, a wide player will receive a ball in the attacking third with forwards and attacking midfielders streaking into the box. And probably 80% of the time, the winger slows down and takes a touch to steady himself before crossing it, thereby forcing his teammates crashing the box to stop or delay their runs, and allowing the defense a chance to get set and defend the cross. Every time this happens, I get inexplicably angry. Crossing the ball with the first touch is admittedly more difficult and not always the right play, but it overjoys me to see Crew wingers (especially Hector Jimenez and Josh Williams) send in these first time crosses. Of the 23 the team recorded against New York, I counted 7 that were on the wide player’s first touch. Oh, and the one that led to the team’s lone goal? First time.

Montreal Impact 1 – 0 Philadelphia Union

Stat that told the story for Philadelphia: 15 giveaways in their own half by Union defenders

 

I used this stat for one of the games last week, and it’s a bit of a tough one to quantify. I included the above image to show how I figure: 15 of the unsuccessful passes by Philly defenders ended in their defensive half (one of which led directly to the game’s lone goal). For a team who have as impressive moments as the Union have early in the year, this kind of sloppiness out of the back really hurts. I don’t want to heap all the criticism on Amobi Okugo, Sheanon Williams and the other defenders, because the truth is part of the problem stems from the midfield. As good as Maurice Edu and Vincent Noguiera look at times, there’s often a conspicuous lack of anyone getting open in the middle of the field for the back line to pass to. The point is this: Philadelphia has certainly looked like a playoff team at times and probably deserves to have more points than they do, but at the same time are usually their own undoing.

Stat that told the story for Montreal: only 41 passes in attacking half by defense/midfield; 51 by four attackers

When watching the Impact this weekend, I was struck by the fact that four attackers in their formation were actually pretty creative and fun to watch. Jack McInerney, Marco Di Vaio, Felipe and Justin Mapp do a lot of good work interchanging and creating chances (especially on the counter). But their defense is fairly fragile, and because of that they play two central midfielders who concentrate on defending first and foremost. This leads to Montreal never really pushing up the field and keeping possession in the attacking half, which ends up putting a lot of pressure on them to defend for heavy minutes. This is one of many reasons that Montreal are near the bottom of the standings; on the other hand, those four attackers can be good enough to win some points on their own at times.

San Jose Earthquakes 1 – 0 Chivas USA

Stat that told the story for Chivas: 7/17 crosses completed by Leandro Barrera

Chivas had to be disappointed to lose this game. They outplayed the Earthquakes, particularly in the first half. They had more possession and more chances than San Jose on the whole, but they were really lacking in quality for the final ball/shot. A prime culprit on this was also one of their best players on the day, young electric winger Leandro Barrera. He mostly plays with the same strategy as guys like Fabian Castillo or Teal Bunbury; that is, run really fast past the defender and try to cross or shoot. Unfortunately, the end of that sequence is a struggle for Barrera: you can see from the image above that his crosses were as likely to fly well over the goal as they were to find a teammate in the box. If he can improve his service, Chivas should see an uptick in their goal scoring.

Stat that told the story for San Jose: 12 midfield recoveries + interceptions in the first half; 17 in the second

San Jose wasn’t overly impressive in earning their first win of the year, but the second half was markedly better than the first. Admittedly, some of this was due to Chivas playing the last portion of the game down a man, but I think the largest reason for the second half improvement was the introduction of Yannick Djalo to the game. Bringing in a true wide threat stretched Chivas’ midfield quite a bit, which was stocked with 3 center mids and two wide players who were wont to tuck inside. This led to the Goats controlling the midfield and winning a lot of balls in the first half, but they were spread thin and had a harder time in the second stanza. To wit: Chivas had 20 recoveries/interceptions to San Jose’s 12 in the first half, but were out-dueled 17-14 by that measure in the second. Once Djalo is healthy, he needs to be on the field all game: it’s clear that his presence brings a threat not only on the ball, but it also helps the team in other ways.

 

Agree with my ideas on these games? Think I’m an idiot? I love to hear feedback. @MLSAtheist

 

How it Happened: Week Three

In the three games I watched this week, five goals were scored. Two were from penalty kicks, and two were off corner kicks. Needless to say, offenses around the league are in early-season form, i.e. not exactly clicking in front of the net. On the bright side, there was a decent amount of combination play leading to chances….it’s just that whole putting them away thing that MLS teams are still working on. Onto the main attraction:

Chicago Fire 1 – 1 New York Red Bulls

Stat that told the story for New York: 350 completed passes; 68% of which were on the left side of the field*

It’s hardly inspiring for the Supporters’ Shield holders to sneak away from Chicago with a draw, but I actually thought they played pretty well on Sunday. Like I said above about the league as a whole, quality was missing on the final ball/shot, but New York fans shouldn’t be too worried about the team’s winless start. In this one there was quite a bit of good linking-up, particularly on the left flank. Given that midfielder Matt Watson was starting in a pinch as a nominal right back for the Fire, it seemed like a concerted effort from RBNY to expose a weakness on that side of the field. Between Roy Miller, Jonny Steele and Thierry Henry, there were some encouraging sequences down that side in particular; unfortunately for New York it didn’t lead to any actual goals.

*This stat/image is blatantly stolen from the Twitter account of MLS Fantasy Insider Ben Jata, @Ben_Jata. After seeing it this weekend, I was unable to think of anything better to include, so thanks, Ben!

Stat that told the story for Chicago: 24 total shots + key passes, only 2 of which were from Mike Magee

I’m not sure if this one is a good stat for Chicago fans or a bad one, but Mike Magee was conspicuously absent from a lot of the action this weekend (unless you count yelling incessantly and childishly at the ref as your definition of ‘action’). But seriously: last year Chicago had 377 shots the entire season, and Magee either took or assisted on 116 of them (31%)*. Oh, and he only played 22 of their 34 games. The fact that he was involved in only 2 of the team’s 24 shots (both of his shots were blocked, for what it’s worth) could certainly be viewed as concerning for Chicago fans expecting another MVP-caliber season out of Magee. But on the other hand, it’s easy to chalk up the struggles to the fact that this was his first game of the season after a maybe-contract-hold-out related hiatus. Also, the fact that Chicago managed to create 22 shots without Magee’s direct influence (or Patrick Nyarko and Dilly Duka, both also out this weekend) has to be a good sign for a team that was often a one-man show last season: youngsters Harrison Shipp and Benji Joya in particular both seem capable of lightening the load.

*Numbers from Squawka.

 

Toronto FC 1 – 0 DC United

Stat that told the story for Toronto: 38% possession, 3 points won

TFC captain Michael Bradley made headlines this week saying something along the lines of how possession was an overrated stat, and his team certainly appears to be trying to prove his point so far this season. The Reds didn’t see a ton of the ball in their home opener, instead preferring to let DC knock the ball around with minimal penetration in the final third. And then when Toronto did win the ball, well, check out the Opta image that led to the game’s lone goal for Jermain Defoe (or watch the video). It started with a hopeful ball from keeper Julio Cesar. The second ball was recovered by Steven Caldwell, who fed Jonathan Osorio. Osorio found his midfield partner Bradley, who lofted a brilliant 7-iron to fellow DP Gilberto. The Brazilian’s shot was saved but stabbed home by the sequence’s final Designated Player, Defoe. Balls like that one were played multiple times throughout the game by both Bradley and Osorio, as TFC has shown no aversion to going vertical quickly upon winning the ball. And with passes like that, speedy wingers, and quality strikers, it’s certainly a strategy that may continue to pay off.

Stat that told the story for DC: 1/21 completed crosses

This stat goes along a bit with what I wrote about Toronto above: they made themselves hard to penetrate in the final third, leading to plenty of incomplete crosses. Some of this high number of aimless crosses also comes from the fact that DC was chasing an equalizer and just lumping balls into the box late in the match. Still, less than 5% on completing crosses is a bit of a red flag when you look at the stat sheet. Particularly when your biggest attacking threat is Eddie Johnson, who tends to be at his best when attacking balls in the air. You’d think Ben Olsen would expect a better crossing percentage. To be fair to United though, I thought they were much better in this game than they were on opening day against Columbus. They looked about 4 times more organized than two weeks ago, and about 786 times more organized than last season, and their possession and link-up play showed signs of improvement too. Still a ways to go, but at least things are trending upward for the Black and Red.

 

Colorado Rapids 2 – 0 Portland Timbers

Stat that told the story for Portland: 1 Donovan Ricketts karate kick

I admit that I’m cheating here and not using a stat or an Opta Chalkboard image. But the above grainy screenshot of my TV that I took is too hilarious and impactful not to include. Colorado and Portland played a game on Saturday that some might call turgid, or testy, or any number of adjectives that are really stand-ins for the word boring. The most interesting parts of most of the game were Ricketts’ adventures in goal, which ranged from dropping floated long balls to tipping shots straight in the air to himself. In the 71st minute it appeared Ricketts had had enough and essentially dropped the mic. Flying out of his net, he leapt into the air with both feet, apparently hoping that if he looked crazy enough the ref would look away in horror instead of red carding him for the obvious kick to Deshorn Brown‘s chest. The Rapids converted the penalty and then added another one a few minutes later, and that was all she wrote.

Stat that told the story for Colorado: 59 total interceptions/recoveries/tackles won; 27 in the game’s first 30 minutes

Alright, I was silly with the Portland section so I feel like I need to do a little serious analysis for this paragraph. The truth is that this game was fairly sloppy on both sides, which is particularly surprising considering how technically proficient Portland was for most of last season. But cold weather combined with early season chemistry issues makes teams play sloppily sometimes, and it didn’t help that Colorado came out and looked very good to start this game. Their defensive shape was very compact when the Timbers had the ball, and the Rapids were very proficient in closing down passing lanes and taking possession back. The momentum swung back to Portland’s side and back a couple of times throughout the match, but Colorado’s strong start set the tone that Donovan Ricketts helped carry to the final whistle.

 

Agree with my assessments? Think I’m an idiot? I always enjoy feedback. Contact me on twitter @MLSAtheist or by email at MLSAtheist@gmail.com

Season Preview: New York Red Bulls

The 2013 New York Red Bulls won the Supporters’ Shield. Yes, they bowed out in the Eastern Conference semifinals…at home…again. And yes, that makes four consecutive seasons with a home playoff loss. And yes, the team’s home playoff record since 2006 is 0-5-2. But when you’ve gone 17 years without winning anything, having your team’s identity stripped away, burning through players, coaches and GMs like tinder, you tend to appreciate the small victories. The Red Bulls won the 2013 Supporters’ Shield, and in 25 years, that’s something that most people will remember.

2013 Finish: 17-9-8, 59 points; 58 GF, 41 GA; Won Supporters Shield. Lost in Conference Semifinals

Transactions

Players In			Players Out
Name	Pos		Name	Pos
Bobby Convey	M	Trade from Toronto	Kevin Hartman	GK	Retired
Armando	D	Free transfer	David Carney	D	Option declined
Richard Eckersley	D	Trade from Toronto	Brandon Barklage	D	Option declined
			Heath Pearce	D	Out of contract
			Amando Moreno	F	Out of contract
			Fabian Espindola	F	Option declined
			Markus Holgersson	D	Contract terminated

Median age: 27
*Designated player

Nothing to See Here
The New York Red Bulls’ off-season has been marked by an uncharacteristic amount of patience. Hundreds of players, fourteen coaches, nine ten general managers/sporting directors, three ownership groups, and two team names in 18 years have made chaos the status quo in North Jersey. For a team as historically turbulent as the Red Bulls (née Metrostars), it is downright bizarre to see them act so calmly.

Of course, it makes sense for the Red Bulls to stand pat. The Red Bulls won the Supporters Shield last season. They may not have played the prettiest soccer, but from a results-oriented perspective, you can’t do any better. Well, not during the regular season anyway. The league is improving, and the core of the Red Bulls is aging, but for now this side appears like it will remain a solid playoff team.

The New Guys

The Red Bulls signed only three new players this offseason: Bobby Convey and Richard Eckersley from Toronto FC in separate trades, and Armando, a central defender, who most recently plied his trade with Córdoba in the Spanish second division. The Red Bulls also selected two players in the second round of the MLS SuperDraft. With the 22^nd overall pick, they took Wake Forest right back Chris Duvall, and with the 34^th overall pick they selected Eric Stevenson, a central midfielder from powerhouse Akron.

No Keeper Controversy… Yet

Luis Robles started the 2013 season shakily; he had issues with both coming out for crosses too aggressively, and not aggressively enough. According to Opta, Robles finished last season with five errors, four of which resulted in goals for the opposition, tying him with Zac MacMath and Corey Ashe for the league lead. On the bright side, all five of his errors took place in the first half of the season, and by mid-summer, Robles had steadied his hands and decision-making enough that he would ultimately be considered one of the strengths of the Red Bull team. Entering 2014, Red Bulls fans feel confident that Luis Robles will become the first keeper to start more than 20 games in consecutive seasons since Jonny Walker in 2003 and 2004.

The Spanish Armando

The defense is the only part of the team that will be noticeably altered from last season. Markus Holgersson, who was second on the team in minutes last season, is the biggest loss for the Red Bulls. The big Swede led the team in tackles last season, and was also 7^th among MLS defenders (and 25^th overall) in pass completion. The Red Bulls are hopeful that Armando, who spent 3 seasons with Barcelona B, will be able to step into Holgersson’s spot in the lineup. Brandon Barklage, who started 20 games last season at right back, had his option declined as the team chose to go with Kosuke Kimura and the recently acquired Eckersley. Most importantly, Jamison Olave will be back to anchor the backline. Last year, the 32-year-old defender amassed the second-highest minutes total of his career, though he spent 115 of the team’s 180 playoff minutes off the pitch, earning a red card for a rash tackle on Omar Cummings in the first leg in Houston. Red Bulls fans should be willing to forgive him for his blunder, as after all, anyone can make a mistake in the playoffs.

The Scapegoat

Multiple mistakes in the playoffs are harder for fans to forgive. Defender Roy Miller began the 2013 season on the hot seat, due to his history of playoff blunders, both actual and perceived. Then, in the second game of the season, Roy Miller didn’t just (literally) handle the ball to give San Jose a late penalty kick, and he didn’t just encroach on the attempt, which was saved by Robles allowing the Earthquakes a retake, but he baffled everyone by admitting after the game that he intentionally encroached, trying to throw Wondolowski off. Of course, anyone who knows the Laws of the Game (and many who don’t) can tell you that this is a no-win situation: a saved attempt will result in a retake, while a goal will stand. Miller would eventually win back his place in the starting lineup, though an achilles injury in late August would cause him to miss the rest of the season, giving rise to the ill-fated David Carney era.

The Man of Steele

Last year, a lack of left-footed depth on the Red Bulls all but guaranteed a healthy Miller the left back position in the starting lineup. This year, the acquisition of Bobby Convey will ensure competition on the left side of the field, not just for Miller, but also Jonny Steele. In 2013, Steele started 33 games as the left midfielder for the Red Bulls, providing a seemingly endless stream of sprints up and down the flank. He was third among Red Bull midfielders in shots, behind Cahill, who played a decent amount at forward, and Juninho, whose shot numbers are boosted by (unsuccessful) dead ball attempts. But the one area where Steele falls short is the one in which Convey excels: passing. Last season, Convey had better per-90 numbers in all of the following: total passes, pass success rate, key passes, cross success rate, and long ball success rate, and that’s despite playing for Toronto!

Skill or Pace?

On the other side of the field, Coach Mike Petke will have to decide whether to start Eric Alexander or Lloyd Sam. Alexander, who picked up his second cap in January, prefers to cut inside and combine with McCarty/Henry or go to goal himself, showing no fear of taking on defenders one-on-one. He finished third on the team in successful dribbles, with 0.9 per game, and among Red Bull players with 10 or more dribbles, he finished with the highest dribble success rate, at 70%. Sam provides something that nobody else on the team sheet does: excellent speed. The first true winger the club has had since Dane Richards, Sam likes to stay wide, use his speed to evade defenders, and flight in crosses. Look at the difference in crosses between the two potential right mids: Alexander averaged 1.55 crosses per 90, while Sam averaged 4.75. Sam also had a better cross success rate, 30% to 12%. Additionally, Sam’s pace provides problems for opponents on the counterattack, as can be seen here and here (kudos also to Luis Robles for his quick and accurate distribution). With all of that said, expect Alexander to be the starter on opening day, as he provides much more structure during the defensive phase of play. Sam, after all, finished 2013 with the lowest tackles per 90 on the team, closer to Luis Robles than Eric Alexander.

DAX!

The man with the greatest number of tackles per 90? None other than Dax McCarty, who finished in the league’s top 20 in 2013 with 2.82 tackles per 90. McCarty has the thankless task of sitting deep in the midfield, breaking up opposing attacks, connecting the defense with the midfield, and not being named Kyle Beckerman. In 2012, McCarty completed the most passes in MLS with a mind-boggling 1,845 in 33 games. Last season, his numbers dropped ever-so-slightly, completing a still robust 1,373 of 1,616 passes in 30 matches. The most interesting component of McCarty’s passing is the fact that of his 1,616 passes, 809 were in the Red Bulls’ half of the field, and 807 were in the opposition’s half. Compare him to other defensive midfielders like Osvaldo Alonso (660/838), Diego Chara (611/994), or Brian Carroll (673/805), and even outside backs—Sean Franklin (456/837) or Lee Young-Pyo (535/804)—and it becomes evident how deep McCarty drops when New York is in possession of the ball.

Aussie! Aussie! Aussie!

For the Red Bulls to remain effective, McCarty must remain withdrawn most of the time, in order to counterbalance Tim Cahill’s attacking forays. That’s not to say that Cahill is an “attacking midfielder” per se. Cahill is one of the most well-rounded and efficient players in Major League Soccer. But he most certainly does attack the opponent’s goal. Despite spending about three-quarters of his time in the midfield, Cahill was 2^nd on the Red Bulls in shots, averaging 2.21 per 90 minutes, and those shots were extremely dangerous: 49 of the 55 were taken from within the penalty area, and of the 11 goals he scored, 10 came from zones 1 and 2.* Part of the reason that he is able to take so many shots from so close is due to his exceptional aerial ability. Cahill won 59.1% of his aerial duels last season, good for 4.41 duels won per game. This was evident not only in opponents’ penalty areas, where he headed home 8 goals last season, but in his own half of the field, where he accumulated 80 clearances, only 12 fewer than McCarty, Alexander, and Steele combined.

*According to our soon-to-be-published Expected Goals 2.0, Cahill scored 46 percent more goals than a league-average player would be expected to score from the shots he attempted, good for 14th of the 40 players that took at least 50 shots in 2013. Not only does he earn high-quality shots, but he finishes them at an above-average clip.

The Attacking Options

If Cahill starts in the midfield, Bradley Wright-Phillips is likely start next to Henry at forward. The other option is for Cahill to start at forward, with Peguy Luyindula playing the #10 role in the midfield. So will it be Bradley or Peguy? Luyindula chipped in 863 minutes over the course of last season, but could never maintain a foothold in the starting lineup with Fabian Espindola around. Wright-Phillips, signed in July to give the team depth at forward, played 337 minutes. Luyindula spent the first first half of the season at forward, maligned by fans for his inability to finish promising goal-scoring opportunities. Disregarding his penalty kick goal (which was earned for him by Lloyd Sam), Luyindula took 20 shots (14 inside the box) without scoring a goal. However, he found his form near the end of the season after Petke began deploying him as a more withdrawn #10-type player. His apotheosis came in the season-ending, Shield-clinching victory over Chicago, in which he registered 3 assists.

Phillips was neither as begrudged nor as celebrated as Luyindula, but he put in solid shifts at forward. Despite being listed at only 5’8”, and 155 pounds, the Englishman demonstrated an ability to effectively hold up the ball, a facet missing from the team for the majority of the season, with both Henry and Espindola preferring to run at players. This strength was complemented by an ability to win the ball in the air. Wright-Phillips finished 3^rd on the Red Bulls in aerials won per 90. The last area where Wright-Phillips excels over Luyindula is his directness. While Luyindula prefers to drop between the lines and receive the ball, Wright-Phillips is more of a prototypical nose-for-goal striker, and this showed, with Wright-Phillips averaging twice as many shots-per-90 as Peguy.

O Captain!

Last but not least, the captain. Thierry Henry will be entering his fifth season for the New York Red Bulls, and despite the fact that he will turn 37 this August, he remains one of the most electrifying players in the league. Despite his speed gradually declining, and a nagging achilles injury that keeps him off of artificial surfaces, Henry’s offensive productivity is still essential to the Red Bulls success. Henry led the team last year—and remember, this team won the Supporters Shield and scored the most goals in the league—in both shots-per-90 and key passes-per-90. The only other players to lead their club in both categories were Federico Higuain, Diego Valeri, and Mike Magee. Henry also finished in the top ten in Major League Soccer in both categories.

Entering the final year of Henry’s contract, he has provided Red Bulls fans all they could have asked for when he arrived. He has provided the team with a must-watch player who, at the top of his game, can perform feats of breathtaking skill. But more than that, he has been passionate about the team: wearing a Metrostars-inspired captain’s armband, spurring on the fans, and exhorting teammates to perform at a higher level. And all this time Red Bull fans were simply hoping that he wouldn’t be caught taking mid-season vacations on the beach in St. Tropez.

Crowdsourcing Results:

When the Red Bulls line up against Vancouver on March 8, they will do so as Supporters’ Shield champions. They will also do so as the team that, yet again, flamed out of the playoffs too early. In the past four years, the Red Bull franchise has done an exemplary job of turning the public image of the club from anonymous losers to talented choke-artists. Baby steps. But the window for any collection of players to win a cup is finite, and with the potential of Thierry Henry departing the club after 2014, this season becomes especially important for a team in search of its first MLS Cup.

American Soccer Analysis readers project a second place in the Eastern Conference. 34.16% of voters believe that the Red Bulls will finish in 2^nd place in the east, and 90.1% believe that they will make the playoffs.

Jamison Olave’s Value to New York

There was quite a popular tweet from a canine about New York’s improved play this season when Jamison Olave was playing.

#RBNY goals allowed per game with Olave? 0.94. #RBNY goals allowed per game without Olave? 1.8. Woof.

— Dan Dickinson (@GothamistDan) November 4, 2013

There are obviously confounding factors at play here, not to mention small sample sizes. There were only seven matches this season in which Olave did not start, and eight in which he played 45 minutes or less. Any data obtained from these games is going to be subject to A) small sample sizes, B) lots of variance in the response variable (goals or wins), and C) no control for quality of opponent or location of the match.

To deal with the small sample size/variance problem, I’m going to use our now semi-famous data set on shot location origins. Steven Fenn kindly showed the world their predictive value, and to me that means that expected goals for and against are the most stable stat available for such an analysis. To control for New York’s opponents—when Olave was both in and out of the starting XI—I have included each of New York’s opponent’s expected goals data in the linear regression, while also accounting for whether or not the Red Bulls were at home. Blah, blah, blah, to the results!

Looking at the defensive side, New York allowed shots leading to 0.24 fewer expected goals against in games that Olave started. That seems to indicate New York’s need for Olave, but the p-value was a kind-of-high 26 percent. Overall, New York’s expected goal differential climbed 0.19 goals in those games that Olave started, though again, the p-value was quite high at 46 percent.*

Now for your shitty conclusion, courtesy of shitty p-values: Olave’s influence on New York’s level of play this season was questionable. There is some suggestion that he helped reduce goal-scoring against, however there is a reasonable chance that that difference was due to other, not-measured-here variables. What I am more comfortable claiming is that he does not make a 0.86-goal difference on the defensive side.

The point is this. New York’s shot creation and goal scoring ability, for and against, are more a function of whether or not the Red Bulls are home, and against whom they are playing. Not as much whether Olave starts. Obviously putting an inferior player into the starting XI isn’t going to help New York out. But, as I always question, do we really know how to value soccer players at all? Maybe Olave just doesn’t make that much of a difference. After all, he’s only one of eleven players.

*For those curious, the number of minutes Olave played was a worse predictor variable than the simple binary variable of whether or not he started. Controlling for the strength of opponent was necessary since perhaps Mr. Petke was more likely to sit Olave against a worse opponent at home, or something like that.

Analysis Evolved Epsiode XXIV: The One Where We Review The US Open Cup Final

This was a long one folks; the running time is roughly 75 minutes. We usually try to keep everything around an hour, but it’s been a while since all three of us were together. There may have been some moments we got a little excited and went longer than normal. This week’s first segment was an ode to Ben Olsen and the DC United game plan that not only produced a win on the road against a very tough opponent, but also won them the US Open Cup and a bid to the CONCACAF Champions League. Because the first segment went a bit long we used the second segment to cover the usual past week of matches, with emphasis on the following games: Sporting-Philly, New England-Houston, LA-Portland and Seattle-New York, all of which had significant impacts on the playoff outlook. The last segment saw us go into a bit of detail about Sporting Kansas City and a possible run at the MLS Cup. In our language, possible doesn’t always mean probable, but in this case it just might. There is also a the a spot where I completely butcher Matthias’ twitter handle, and I may have also made up a some words in there, too, only to have Drew coyly call me on it.

All in all, this was was an especially fun episode to record, and I hope that you all enjoy it!