MLS Week 8: Top 50 Shots

Okay, shots. We talk a lot about shots because, well, shots lead to goals. Obviously you can’t have a goal without first attempting a shot. I know that was a deep thought, but just go with me here.

We put a lot of emphasis on shots here and have dug into their expectation leading to goals. It’s backed by the belief that shots are important statistics in correlation to team success. Now there are plenty of caveats to shots and we use them to influence our ideas of what is good or bad. Matthias has taken time to explain at least some of them.

So with all that said you can’t read too much into all of these numbers. Take for instance the fact that Frederico Higuian creates 7.03 shots per 90 minutes. That’s nearly a shot and a quarter more than Brad Davis at 5.79. Is Higuian a better shot creator because he creates one additional shot over the course of a single match? If that shot is from zone 4 or even 5, the value of that single shot becomes marginalized in that specific instance.

Despite all of those various acknowledgements of how this is marginally interesting, and yet mostly a useless exercise, I put together a follow-up of last week’s top 50 individual shots creators in Major League Soccer. I decided it was best to cut up this data and present it via a tiered system to make it a bit more palatable and to highlight the players that have set themselves apart from their peers. Also, this allows me to be a bit creative in the tier process.

IBC Root Beer Tier – “The Best of the Best.”

	Player	Club	POS	MINS	G	A	SHTS	Key Passes	Sh-C	Sh-C p90
1	Marco Di Vaio	MTL	F	326	1	1	24	4	29	8.01
2	Clint Dempsey	SEA	M	393	6	3	23	7	33	7.56
3	Federico Higuain	CLB	F	538	4	2	20	20	42	7.03
4	Robbie Keane	LA	F	450	4	1	22	12	35	7.00
5	Pedro Morales	VAN	M	472	1	2	19	15	36	6.86
6	Thierry Henry	NY	F	449	2	0	23	9	32	6.41

Oh, yeah… Marco Di Viao. He’s also pretty good at this whole soccer thing. I guess we can all say that we could have guessed every singl–what the hell is Pedro Morales doing in there??? I guess that probably explains a lot about what’s been happening in Vancouver. He’s second overall in total Shots Created and he could very well be a shoo-in for MLS Newcomer of the Year.  He’s like the offensive equivalent of what Jose Goncalves was last year to New England. I only have one question: who is this Camilo guy everyone was talking about?

Stewart’s Root Beer Tier – “You don’t have IBC? Who doesn’t have IBC?”

	Player	Club	POS	MINS	G	A	SHTS	Key Passes	Sh-C	Sh-C p90
7	Landon Donovan	LA	M-F	450	0	2	13	14	29	5.80
8	Brad Davis	HOU	M	311	0	2	3	15	20	5.79
9	Graham Zusi	KC	F-M	450	1	3	9	16	28	5.60
10	Diego Valeri	POR	M	579	1	0	19	16	35	5.44
11	Dom Dwyer	KC	F	427	4	0	22	3	25	5.27
12	Leo Fernandes	PHI	F	436	2	1	13	11	25	5.16
13	Lloyd Sam	NY	M	621	1	3	12	20	35	5.07
14	Mike Magee	CHI	F	450	1	2	15	8	25	5.00
15	Giles Barnes	HOU	M	527	0	1	22	6	29	4.95
16	Justin Mapp	MTL	M	585	0	3	11	18	32	4.92
17	Michael Bradley	TOR	M	433	1	0	6	17	23	4.78
18	Mauro Diaz	DAL	M	604	2	3	13	16	32	4.77
19	Quincy Amarikwa	CHI	F	548	4	1	16	12	29	4.76
20	Felipe Martins	MTL	M	626	1	2	18	13	33	4.74
21	Gilberto	TOR	F	423	0	0	13	9	22	4.68
22	Cristian Maidana	PHI	M	425	0	2	11	9	22	4.66
23	Deshorn Brown	COL	F	448	1	0	19	4	23	4.62
24	Chris Wondolowski	SJ	F-M	450	3	0	20	3	23	4.60
25	Fabian Espindola	DC	F	531	2	2	11	14	27	4.58
26	Michel	DAL	M-D	401	3	2	11	7	20	4.49
27	Lamar Neagle	SEA	F	506	2	2	16	6	24	4.27
28	Obafemi Martins	SEA	F	620	2	4	13	12	29	4.21
29	Erick Torres	CHV	F	603	6	0	22	6	28	4.18
30	Javier Morales	RSL	M	527	0	2	7	15	24	4.10

Justin Mapp has the same amount of total Shots Created as Mauro Diaz in almost 20 minutes less field time. Try thinking about that next time you’re frustrated by Mapp’s hair line. Try.

Dom Dwyer does not go away. This guy could be someone that we may need to start legitimately talking about in the coming weeks. You should probably add Leo Fernandez and Lloyd Sam to that obnoxious hype list too.

Speaking of Sam, I added him to my MLS Fantasy Roster for tonight, hedging the bet that he finally scores a goal. At last look, the guy currently holds the highest xGoal predictor score without actually scoring a goal. If there was ever a guy that was “due” to score a goal, it’s him and I’m virtually betting on it happening.

On the note of not scoring goals, “Hi, Landon Donovan“. Who, in case you didn’t notice, is still a good player even when not putting the ball in the back of the net. Because, you know, skillz.

 

Barqs Root Beer Tier – “Old Reliable”

	Player	Club	POS	MINS	G	A	SHTS	Key Passes	Sh-C	Sh-C p90
31	Dwayne De Rosario	TOR	M	254	0	0	10	1	11	3.90
32	Mauro Rosales	CHV	M	626	0	3	10	14	27	3.88
33	Kenny Miller	VAN	F	537	3	1	14	8	23	3.85
34	Bradley Wright-Phillips	NY	F	358	1	0	12	3	15	3.77
35	Darren Mattocks	VAN	F	580	2	3	13	8	24	3.72
36	Jack McInerney	MTL	F	436	2	1	13	4	18	3.72
37	Will Bruin	HOU	F	539	3	1	14	7	22	3.67
38	Baggio Husidic	LA	M	344	1	1	7	6	14	3.66
39	Bernardo Anor	CLB	M	497	2	0	16	4	20	3.62
40	Hector Jimenez	CLB	M	523	1	2	9	10	21	3.61
41	Teal Bunbury	NE	F	630	0	1	14	10	25	3.57
42	Diego Fagundez	NE	M-F	584	0	0	19	4	23	3.54
43	Sal Zizzo	KC	F	433	0	2	10	5	17	3.53
44	Kenny Cooper	SEA	F	358	2	1	12	1	14	3.52
45	Benny Feilhaber	KC	M	539	1	1	8	12	21	3.51
46	Juninho	LA	M	448	0	2	8	7	17	3.42
47	Andrew Wenger	PHI	F	528	2	0	14	6	20	3.41
48	Eric Alexander	NY	M	451	0	3	7	7	17	3.39
49	Alex	CHI	M	512	0	0	12	7	19	3.34
50	Saer Sene	NE	M	355	0	0	8	5	13	3.30

 

There are roughly 19 names here and I’m not going to go through them all. But key surprises are Jack McInerney, who everyone continues to think is “slumping” when he’s not scoring goals. Baggio Husidic is making waves in that flashy new diamond attack in LA. Husidic is filling the hole that once upon a time existed out wide and makes the Robbie Rogers-trade look worse and worse, as he likely won’t make it past a bench position upon return. Bernardo Anor has been doing a lot for Columbus out of the midfield but, perhaps, the bigger story than Anor–or even the LA trade for Rogers–is that fact that Gregg Berhalter pretty much stole Hector Jimenez who is looking brilliant in his new Crew colors.

Lastly, three other off season moves are having impacts with their new clubs.

1. Teal Bunbury is finally being “the other guy” and taking shots in New England. Lord knows they need to start converting those opportunities.
2. Sal Zizzo wasn’t exactly a headline move this off-season, but since being let go by Portland this past off-season he’s been a gold staple in the Sporting KC line-up.
3. Kenny Cooper is having himself a quietly productive first season in the Emerald City. Yes, it’s towards the bottom of the line-up and it doesn’t really mean much of anything. But he’s been reliable and fits in with Clint Dempsey and Oba Martins, playing the third/fourth fiddle and doing whatever needs to happen. Great role for him and he’s doing it well.

There are a lot of things to take away from this. Like why didn’t I just make two tiers: IBC Rootbeer and Barqs, which is basically all you’re going to go with unless there is some local brewed Root beer that you want to try for funsies. Anyways, some information here. Not necessarily good information, but at this stage of analysis and data when it comes to MLS, and really soccer in general, what is “good” information?

Season Preview: FC Dallas

Over the past three seasons, fans of the Hoops have seen their team crash down from the high of a 2010 MLS Cup Finals appearance . In 2012, those same fans endured a 13-game winless streak, to be followed by another 11-game winless streak in 2013, resulting in Dallas missing the playoffs each of the past two seasons. What made matters worse was their red hot start to 2013, where they raced out to a 7-2-3 record and 24 points by the end of May, good for first place in the West. After missing out on the post season following such a hot start, Schellas Hyndman was shown the door (officially resigned), and former FC Dallas player and long time assistant Oscar Pareja was hired to right the ship. There is much optimism surrounding Dallas as they look to put the past behind them and get themselves back into the playoffs in 2014.

2013 Finish: 44 Points, 8th in the Western Conference, Missed MLS Playoffs

Player Added	Position	Acquired from:	Player Lost	Position	To
Ryan Hollingshead	M	2013 SuperDraft	Ugo Ihemelu	D	option declined
Adam Moffat	M	traded from Seattle	Ramon Nunez	M	option declined
Brian Span	M	weighted lottery	Erick	M	option declined
Hendry Thomas	M	traded from Colorado	Jackson	M	traded to Toronto
Andres Escobar	F	Loan (Dynamo Kiev)	Victor Ulloa	M	out of contract
David Texeira	F	Free (FC Groningen)	David Ferreira	M	option declined
			Kenny Cooper	F	traded to Seattle

Roster Churn: 77.97% returning minutes (12th lowest in MLS)

Lots of optimism surround the Hoops after the theft appointment of Oscar “Papi” Pareja as head coach, and for good reason. The former Colorado Rapids head coach was highly regarded by the front office, was a contender for MLS Coach of the Year after Colorado overachieved last season with their young roster, thanks in some part to Pareja’s guidance.

 

While the optimism is high, there are also some concerns with the team, as they jettisoned off a few key pieces from last year (Captain David Ferreira, striker Kenny Cooper, and winger Jackson), and now FC Dallas must work through that awkward transition where new faces and a new coach try to get on the same page. Will the front office and Dallas fans be patient enough to wait for Pareja to work his magic, given they’ve missed the playoffs two season in a row now? His first season in Colorado was forgettable (11-19-4, no playoffs), but there were clear signs of improvement in his second year (14-11-9, knock out rounds). 

 

With the exception of Blas Perez, the Dallas attack is young. [Fabian] Castillo (21), [Andres] Escobar (22), and [Mauro] Diaz (22) make for a very dangerous trio if they can develop their chemistry together. Diaz has been handed the number 10 jersey and will hold the keys to driving the Hoops offense this season. Much like it was with his predecessor, Captain Ferreira, where Diaz goes, FC Dallas will follow. And while the short glimpses we saw of Diaz were promising last season, being the focal point and main man for the entire season in a new league is another thing to handle altogether. 

 

Last season’s Achilles heel had to be the central midfield for Dallas. When holding midfielder Peter Luccin went down with an injury before the season began, FC Dallas was left without any adequate cover, and it lost its midfield bite and any real quality in linking the defense to the attack. That has been addressed strongly this off season with the acquisition of former Rapids midfielder Hendry Thomas (who is basically a tank on cleats) and former Sounder Adam Moffat (better link up player). Not to mention Luccin is back and healthy, and Andrew Jacobson got a good solid year of starter experience under his belt. Dallas’ thinnest spot in 2013 has suddenly become their greatest depth in 2014.

 

The Dallas defense looks largely the same with everyone from last year who got significant playing time returning. The debate now is whether that’s a good or a bad thing. Jair Benitez is now a year older, and while he provides help in offense (hello golazo!), his defending remains inconsistent. Zach Loyd had a subpar year by his standards in 2013. Whether he can regain his form that led him to be a USMNT call up waits to be seen. 

 

Finally, the last question mark for Dallas is what will Pareja do with homegrown standout Kellyn Acosta? His breakthrough 2013 was a huge step in the right direction for the Homegrown Player program, but where does he fit on this team? In 2013 he filled in admirably—at times better than Loyd at right back—but the teenage star has spoken that his preferred position is defensive midfield. Regardless of where he plays, Acosta is a talent that needs to see the field as much as possible. 

FC Dallas finished 2013 as the epitome of average statistically, posting the 10th best expected goal differential, as well as the 10th best shot attempt ratio. Hope rests in Pareja’s ability to work with a team that has added six new players to date, and to inject this team with a little magic that worked for Pareja’s former team last season.

 

Crowd Sourcing Placement: 8th place in Western Conference; 107 of the 406 8th-place votes (26.35%), and 321 of 404 (79.5%) of voters felt that FC Dallas would not make the playoffs in 2014.

*ExpGD is the same as our metric xGD.

 

New England Revolution acquires Juan Agudelo: What does that mean?

First things first before I make fun of the Revolution (and I will).  Their defense has been—excluding the New York outlier—borderline elite this season. That’s possibly one of the few reasons they’re still afloat and maybe the only reason to watch them (sorry, Lee Nguyen).